Not Gonna Happen

There are very few things that I am certain about. 

One thing that I an certain of is that when a largely unknown aircraft manufacturer claims that it will build a transport that dwarfs the AN-124, it ain't gonna happen.

As rarities in aerospace go, the outsize cargo aircraft—or purpose-designed large airlifter—is among the most unique. Limited in number yet indispensable for key commercial and military roles, the outsize freighter fleet is rarely augmented or refreshed. Debuts of new options with tail or nose loading ramps are separated by decades, and relatively low flight hour accumulations mean that aging aircraft remain in service for years.

………

Under the Next-Generation Airlift (NGAL) program, the U.S. Air Force is poised to begin an analysis of alternatives for a single future airlifter to replace the C-17 and C-5. In parallel, the Air Force Life Cycle Management Center’s Propulsion Directorate is working with engine-makers on studies of propulsion systems for a future aircraft.

………

Another startup targeting military airlift is Colorado-based Radia, which is developing the enormous WindRunner. The 356-ft.-long, 261-ft.-wingspan aircraft is designed to carry payloads up to 160,000 lb. and 344 ft. long. With the capability to operate from a runway length of 6,000 ft., the WindRunner is planned to fly 1,200 nm at Mach 0.6 powered by four commercially available turbofans in the 55,000-lb.-thrust range.

Despite the emergence of an active Air Force RFI, Radia is proposing a nearer-term military WindRunner variant dubbed the C-242, founder and CEO Mark Lundstrom says. “The Pentagon is starting to turn the gears for the Next-Generation Airlift, and it is a process which would create a new capability sometime probably in the early 2040s,” he says. “Radia’s intent is to provide service in the early 2030s.”

The manufacture of large air-lifters is not a Mickey Rooney and Judy Garland movie.

You can't just go and say, "My dad has a barn, let's assemble an 800 ton aircraft!"

Well, you can go and say that, if you are smoking the right stuff.