oshit

The Ukrainian drone attack on Putin's residence was never likely to change the situation in the Russo-Ukraine war, but now it appears that it could have, and could still make things far worse, because it was also arguably an attack on Russian nuclear command and control infrastructure, which is defined under Russian law as justifying a nuclear response.

Thankfully, nothing nuclear has happened ……… Yet.

A drone attack carried out against one of Putin’s residences was also an attack against a Russian nuclear command and control center located at the residence, according to the ex-adviser to the office of the President of Ukraine, Alexey Arestovich, and a military expert interviewed by Sputnik news and Tass.

This is yet another drone attack that attempted to kill the Russian President; the first occurred when Putin was traveling to Kursk in his helicopter and was attacked by a drone swarm. This second drone attack against Putin’s residence was also an attack against a component of the nuclear triad (the nuclear control center in the residence), which under Russian law and military code, justifies a nuclear response.

Do I think that this attack will lead to a nuclear response?  No, for whatever my opinion is worth.

Do I think that further attacks increase risk?  Yes.

(update) 

Scott Ritter has a similar analysis up.