Have I Said That We Are F%$#Ed Lately?

I vaguely recall saying so recently.

This time it's H1N1, which appears to be only a few genes away from creating a new and lethal pandemic.

Last winter, 2024-25 I predicted on my social media platform that we were about two years (which would include next winter as well) or less from the virus [H1N1] developing human to human transmission capacity.

It’s a big prediction to make, and I hope that I am wrong, but with as little as one to three mutations in a notoriously mutagenic virus, person to person spread of H5N1 has really just become a matter of “when” not “if”.

That said, it is difficult to predict the mutational leaps a virus may or may not make. So as we head into the winter of 2025-26 I felt like it was a good time to update everyone on my thinking about this virus. I am still not certain when H5N1 will being spreading between people, but what I can say is that we are incredibly close to having a second pandemic in 5 years become a reality.

The reason I believe we are closer than ever is that H5N1 is only one to three mutations away from developing the capacity for human-to-human transmission. Well, really only one mutation, but the additional 2 or so mutations would make it spread even faster, and some of those mutations have already been detected in the wild.

Typically, when highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses make the leap to people, they come with greater transmissibility than a typical influenza and greater pandemic causing potential.

The United States is not prepared to face another pandemic, especially not one where the current mortality rate is up to 50% (likely to drop, but still may be higher than SARS-CoV-2). Political will is also ensuring a lack of preparedness by defunding surveillance, testing, and research supporting rapid development of a H5N1 vaccine that could be rapidly produced, much like the COVID-19 vaccine.

Not to worry, I'm sure that the health authorities are on the case  ……… Bueller???  Bueller???