It's the first Friday of the month, so we got the July jobs report, and much like yesterday's weekly unemployment report, this ain't good news.
Non-farm payrolls rose by only 114,000, well under what is required to accommodate workforce growth and far less than forecast, the unemployment rate rose by 0.2% to 4.3%, and the number of unemployed increased by 352,000 to 7.2 million, about a 5% bump.
American employers reined in their hiring significantly in July, intensifying jitters that the economy is cooling faster than expected.
Payrolls grew by 114,000, the Labor Department reported on Friday, the second smallest gain in a 43-month period of consistent job growth. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent, the highest level since October 2021, when anxiety about the pandemic was still elevated.
The report added to worries that Federal Reserve officials, who have been holding off on cutting interest rates until they see more data that indicates inflation is coming under control, may have waited too long, potentially sending the labor market into a hard-to-arrest downward spiral. Fed policymakers left the benchmark interest rate at 5.3 percent at their meeting this week but suggested that a rate cut could be on the table at their next gathering, in mid-September.
I don't think that a rate cut will be on the table, it's close to the elections, and Fed does not want to appear to be political they will likely stand pat.
Of course, holding rates steady is also a political act, but no one will accuse them of THAT, because it just hurts ordinary working folks.
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Wage growth decelerated in July, with average hourly earnings up 0.2 percent from the previous month and 3.6 percent from a year earlier. The number of people working part time who would have preferred full-time employment also increased, while the number of hours worked per week ticked down slightly, both signals that the demand for workers is slackening.
Then again, maybe they might lower rates if they think that workers have been sufficiently cowed, and are willing to return to peonage.
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