05 July 2024

UThursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ on Friday

Because of the July 4 holiday, this report came out on Wednesday, and I was busy packing, and then busy driving, but it ain't good.

Initial claims rose by 4,000, instead of the forecast drop of 1,000, but we have had 9 straight weeks of increasing continuing claims, implying increased weakness in the job market:

Labor data Wednesday added further evidence that the labor market is slowing down.

US companies hired workers at a more moderate pace in June and wage growth cooled in private payrolls data from the ADP Research Institute. Recurring claims for unemployment benefits rose for a ninth straight week, the longest stretch since 2018 that indicates a growing number of people are having difficulty finding a new job.

The two reports, coming ahead of the government’s June employment report Friday, suggest weaker demand for workers. A separate measure published Wednesday showed that the US services sector contracted last month at the fastest pace in four years, another sign that the economy is losing steam.


Wage growth slowed for a third month in June for workers who changed jobs to 7.7% from a year ago in the ADP data, published Wednesday in collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab. Workers who stayed in their job saw a 4.9% annual increase, the smallest since mid-2021.
But still beating inflation, which means that the Fed will remain hell bent on crushing the average worker.
Two industries had job losses last month, natural resources and mining as well as manufacturing, which shed payrolls for a second month.

Meanwhile, continuing claims for unemployment applications, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, increased to 1.86 million in the week ended June 22, the highest since November 2021, according to Labor Department data released Wednesday. First-time claims rose by 4,000 to 238,000 last week.

 Meanwhile the monthly employment report increased by 0.1% to 4.1% even while non-farm employment rose by 206,000, which is better than treading water, but only by a little.

The unemployment rate appears to have risen largely because of increased labor force participation.

I think that it's obvious that things are slowing down, though how far, and how fast is unclear.


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