Once again, initial unemployment claims in the US were below estimates, flat at 208K, as opposed to the consensus forecast of 212K claims, and continuing claims were also flat, at 1.774 million claims, so the job market remains tight (spoiler, with over a million workers dead and at least as many suffering long-Covid disability, that is how the math works.).
Meanwhile, productivity fell, which is an indicator of an economic slowdown of some kind.
The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, was also unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 1.774 million during the week ending April 20, the claims report showed.
Low layoffs were reinforced by a separate report from global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showing U.S.-based employers announced 64,789 job cuts in April, a 28% drop from March. So far this year, companies have announced 322,043 job cuts, down 4.6% from the same period last year.
The claims data have no bearing on April's employment report, which is scheduled to be published on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 243,000 jobs in April after a gain of 303,000 in March, according to a Reuters survey of economists. The unemployment rate is forecast unchanged at 3.8%.
A third report from the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistic showed nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, increased at a 0.3% annualized rate in the first quarter after rising at a 3.5% pace in the October-December period. The government on Friday corrected productivity data from 2019 through 2023 due to a computation error.
I really do not expect tomorrow's unemployment numbers to clarify much.
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