Once More, It's Thursday

Claims over the past year


The 4 week moving average since 1971 H/t Calculated RiskOnce again, initial unemployment claims fell more than forecast.

I'm not sure what it means beyond the fact that the Federal Reserve woill continue to keep rates high, because they have not got their sado-monetarist freak on yet:

Initial applications for US unemployment benefits fell to the lowest in a month last week, underscoring continued strength in the labor market despite a growing number of high-profile job cuts at large companies.

What they mean by large companies are tech firms, like Apple (161,000 employees), Google (191,000 employees), Microsoft (221,000), the criminal enterprise formerly known as Facebook™ (86,000 employees), etc.

This compares to Toyota (366,000 employees), Amazon (1,608,000 employees, but they are just laying off the small segment of white collar employees), Walmart (2,100,000 employees).

These stunning layoffs from large corporations, are neither particularly stunning, nor from particularly large companies.

Software companies have an atypically low head count relative to their turnover, and don't actually manufacture or deliver a physical thing, which is why their headcounts are so low.

Journalists pay attention to these fleas because the jobs that they provide are very much like their own jobs, in that journalist produce no physical objects, and require very little in the way of capital.  (Printing and delivering newspapers is a very small part of their total headcount)

Initial claims decreased by 12,000 to 201,000 in the week ending Feb. 17, according to Labor Department data released on Thursday. The figure was lower than all economists’ estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

Continuing claims, a proxy for the total number of people receiving unemployment benefits, dropped to 1.86 million in the week ending Feb. 10, also the lowest in a month.

The latest data, which show filings remain near record lows, add to other reports indicating the labor market remains robust despite elevated interest rates. Many economists see job stability as a key factor underpinning a forecast for ongoing increases in consumer spending this year.

Weekly claims tend to be volatile. The four-week moving average, which helps smooth short-term swings, decreased to 215,250.

I still think that we are headed for a recession, and unlike our relatively brief pandemic shutdown driven recession, this will be driven by a financial crisis, which I'll discuss in detail later, which will last far longer, and recover more slowly, because it will be addressed by bailing out the banksters, which does not actually help the economy.