13 February 2024

Crap

I think that it is pretty clear that the Federal Reserve is looking for an excuse not to lower interest rate, and the January inflation report will supply ample ammunition.

It's not that the inflation rate didn't drop, it did from 3.4% year over year in December to 3.1% in January, it's that forecasts were for the rate to fall to 2.9%, so investors, and I, think that the Fed will use this as an excuse to keep their current interest rate at the next meeting.

This is not good.  There are a whole bunch of people who borrowed short and lent long (It's called "Banking") who could be in a world of hurt over this:

Inflation eased again in January but came in above Wall Street’s expectations, clouding the Federal Reserve’s path to rate cuts and potentially giving the central bank breathing space to wait until the middle of the year.

The Labor Department reported Tuesday that consumer prices rose 3.1% in January from a year earlier, versus a December gain of 3.4%. That marked the lowest reading since June.

Still, the consumer-price index was higher than the predicted 2.9%, a disappointment for investors who hope the Fed will cut rates sooner rather than later. Rate cuts tend to help stock prices by boosting economic activity and reducing competition from bonds for investor dollars. 

The markets reacted as anticipated, stocks fell, and bond yields rose in response to the inflation news.

I would note that at this point, the entire difference between the inflation rate and the 2% target can be explained by monopoly rents, commonly called, "Greedflation."

But they don't want that, they want to throw people out of work:

………

Officials have said they aren’t ready to entertain rate cuts at their next meeting, March 19-20, because they want to see more evidence that inflation is returning to their 2% target.

Of course they said that.  They can't just say, "We want working people to suffer," at least not since the days of Alan Greenspan.

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