10 January 2024

Saying the Quiet Part Out Loud

It appears that the good folks at are distressed because China is trying to move up the production chain to more sophisticated, and more profitable, products.

I thought that the whole point of globalization was that it would allow less developed economies to work their way up the supply chain in order to improve the lives of their citizens.

It's far better to invest in this than to invest in yet another real estate bubble, as our leaders in Washington and Tokyo should, but don't understand:

As China’s property sector declines, President Xi Jinping needs to reshape the nation’s economic model to drive growth over the next decade. His government’s solution risks igniting a new wave of trade tensions across the globe.

China’s leaders are pouring money into manufacturing as property-related activity, which once spurred about a fifth of the economy’s expansion, turned into a drag on growth in 2022. Part of that focus is what they call the “new three” growth drivers of electric vehicles, batteries and renewable energy, aiding the world’s de-carbonization push and fueling demand for commodities such as copper and lithium.

So far, the strategy is helping China avoid the recessions that hit Japan in the 1990s and the US in 2008 when their housing markets melted down: The world’s second-biggest economy is now growing at about 5% a year. Yet it’s also fueling imbalances that are setting the stage for renewed global trade tensions between China and the developed world, as well as emerging economies that are pushing to reach the lower rungs of the industrialization ladder.

The panic is, "OMG!!!  The Chinese are moving from producing cheap shit that generates profits for foreigners to producing not-so-cheap shit that creates profits for themselves."

Merciful heavens, I believe that I do have the vapors over this.

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