Geography is Hard!

18 km from Al Tanf to the BorderIn yet another example of things going pear shaped in the Middle East, 3 US soldiers were killed in an attack on a facility in ……… Jordan?? Syria?? ……… There does not seem to be a consensus between Amman and Washington on this.

The US maintains a base in Syria at Al Tanf, and the attack was either on that base, or at a facility called Tower 22, described as being some 20 km from Al Tanf, which would place it at most 2½ km (less than a mile) inside Jordan.

The US maintains that the attack was in Jordan, and Jordan maintains that the attack was in Syria, and margin for error here is such that Tiger Woods could probably hit a golf ball further than this distance.

If the strike was on personnel in Syria, who are inside the country without the invitation of any entity claiming to be the government of Syria, the attack is justifiable under international law pertaining to conflict.

If this strike was on personnel in Jordan, then a cross border raid of this sort is of dubious legality under international law, though common among militaries that play under USA rules of combat going at least as far back as Cambodia.

Three US troops have been killed and dozens injured in a drone attack on a US base near Jordan's border with Syria.

US President Joe Biden said the attack was carried out by "radical Iran-backed militant groups". He added: "We shall respond."

Iran has denied any involvement in the attack.

It is the first time that a strike has killed US troops in the region since Hamas's 7 October attack on Israel.

Jordan says the attack took place in Syria, not inside Jordan.

It should be noted that where the US troops were will have zero impact on the domestic US politics of this matter.  The usual suspects will be calling for an escalation, and we will get an escalation.

The proximate cause for boots on the ground in Syria was the presence of Daesh (ISIS), and with that group broken as an organized military and organized government, the only reason to keep troops in Syria is to keep troops in Syria.

This is a mess decades in the making.