17 November 2023

Not a Good Thursday

Initial jobless claims numbers came out, and they are grim, initial claims rose by 13,000 to 231,000 well above the 220,000 forcast.

Additionally, continuing claims rose to 1.87 million, the highest level in almost 2 years.

The Fed is getting the recession that they wanted so badly:

Continuing applications for US unemployment benefits rose to the highest level in almost two years, underscoring the increasing challenges unemployed workers are facing in finding new jobs.

Recurring jobless claims, a proxy for the number of people continuously receiving unemployment benefits, jumped to 1.87 million in the week ended Nov. 4, according to Labor Department data out Thursday. That marked an eighth straight week of increases.

Initial jobless claims also rose, to 231,000 in the week ending Nov. 11. That was the highest since August.


A separate report Thursday showed that US factory production fell in October by more than expected, largely reflecting a strike-related pullback in activity at automakers and parts suppliers. And homebuilder sentiment dropped to the lowest level this year in November as high mortgage rates kept a lid on housing demand.

I don't expect the Fed to raise rate at its next meeting, but I also do not see rates lowered for at least the next 6 months, as that would imply an admission of error.

Fasten your seat belts, we are in for a bumpy ride.


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