The Sh%$ is Getting Real

Algeria has just closed its airspace to French military aircraft in response to threats of France intervening militarily in Niger.

The Algerians have a long and fraught history with French colonial rule, and there is no love lost between them as a result.

Additionally, French policies in the Sahel have basically been an extension of its colonial rule.

It is no surprise that Algeria has been aggressively opposing a potential French military intervention in Niger:

Algeria has reportedly refused to grant access to its airspace to French military aircraft for potential operations into Central Africa, at a time when Paris is considering supporting a military intervention against its former colony of Niger. Military options to restore a French-aligned government in Niamey began to be discussed shortly after its was deposed in July. Algeria, which gained independence from French colonial rule after a long liberation war in 1962, has consistently opposed Western military operations against other African states, and previously closed its airspace to French military aircraft flying to and from its southern neighbour Mali. As by far the largest country in Africa, and located directly between France and both Mali and Niger, an inability to use Algerian airspace will seriously complicate possible operations. In Mali’s case, Algiers also reportedly helped pay for the deployment of Russian military contractors to support the Malian Armed Forces, allowing them to more easily expel French and other European forces from 2021.

………

Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune voiced concerns regarding a possible attack on Niger, stating: “a military intervention could ignite the whole Sahel region and Algeria will not use force with its neighbours.” Following the overthrows of French-aligned governments in Mali and Burkina Faso in popular military coups, Niger was long seen as vulnerable to possible similar unrest particularly as anti-French sentiments continued to rise. Incidents such as the French massacre of ‘Down with France’ protestors in December 2021 only further increased tensions. French, American and other Western forces in Niger have notably refused to leave since the change in government in the final week of July, although it has been widely speculated that should the new administration remain in power Western military bases will face growing pressure to close. This would potentially pave the way to closer security ties between Niger and Russia through the latter’s military contractor groups. Algeria itself remains a leading Russian security partner, and has invested very heavily in modernising its armed forces and in particular its aerial warfare capabilities since the unexpected NATO assault on Libya in 2011, leading it to be considered the most capable military power in Africa or the Arab world by a significant margin.

The French air force is heavily dependent on tanking for their foreign deployments, so this would make military action in Niger much more difficult.

That's basic geography.