This is Not Good

The Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to -0.7 in January, well below the consensus forecast of +25.

This is likely the result of the Omicron outbreak, and matches my experiences on my daily commute, where my slightly shorter (distance) commute usually takes longer because of congestion, and more often than not, it hasn't since beginning of the year.

To quote Bette Davis, "We are in for a bumpy ride."

The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index plunged to -0.7 in January of 2022 from 31.9 in December, well below market forecasts of 25. The reading pointed to the first contraction in NY manufacturing activity since the second quarter of 2020, as demand for goods declined amid the spread of the omicron coronavirus variant. It also ends 18 straight months of expansion. New orders declined slightly (-5 vs 27.1 in December), while shipments held steady (1 vs 27.1). Delivery times continued to lengthen (21.6 vs 23.1), and unfilled orders increased (12.1 vs 19). Labor market indicators pointed to a moderate increase in employment (16.1 vs 21.4) and a longer average workweek (10.3 vs 12.1). Both price indexes moved lower, but remained elevated (76.7 for prices paid index and 37.1 for received). Plans for capital and technology spending were strong. Looking ahead, firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve over the next six months.

The Empire State Manufacturing Index is a survey of manufacturing companies in New York, and Omicron has hit New York (and Maryland, but less so) hard.

By way of context, this is the first drop in the index in over 18 months.