08 October 2021

Monthly Jobs Report Underwhelms

The very serious people were expecting nearly ½ million new jobs in September.  We actually got only rose by 194,000 in September, which in addition to being about 40% of expectations, is not much more than the roughly 150,000 keep up with labor force growth.

In fact, if labor force growth keeps up at this rate, catching up by about 50K a month, it will take about 13 years to catch up with the before time.

I would also note that there were 8 million people dropped from various extended unemployment programs in September, so we have no evidence that we are pushing people back to work.

We've had surges in various regions of the Delta variant of Covid-19, of course, but also, we have pulled a significant amount of money out of the economy in the last month, by my back of the envelope calculations, about $9,600,000,000/month, about ½% of GDP, so I would not expect stellar job figures for a while.

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