It's Jobless Thursday!

Meh

And initial unemployment claims fell to 375,000, down 12,000 from the previous week, but the 4-week moving average rose slightly to 396,250, which seems to indicate that the 375K-400K range might be the new normal for a while.

My quick analysis, is that this is mixed news:

New applications for jobless benefits declined for the third straight week, showing the labor market continues to heal despite worries about the Delta variant.

First-time applications for benefits, a proxy for layoffs, fell to a seasonally adjusted 375,000 in the week ended Aug. 7, from a revised 387,000 in the prior week, the Labor Department said Thursday. In recent weeks, jobless claims have been hovering just above the lowest level touched since the pandemic took hold in the U.S. in March 2020.

The four-week moving average, which smooths often volatile data, edged up to 396,250 last week. That is well below the roughly 6 million new claims filed in late March and early April 2020, but above the about 220,000 applications filed weekly in the months before the pandemic.

The recent claims data matches with other indicators showing momentum in the labor market and broader economy is continuing despite signs that the recent rise in coronavirus infections is starting to crimp some business activity.

Thursday’s report showed the number of continuing claims, a proxy for the total number of people receiving benefits through state programs, fell to 2.9 million, the lowest since the middle of March 2020, at the start of the pandemic.

Recent jobless claims data could also reflect policy changes. About half of states have acted to end federal pandemic programs that added $300 a week to unemployment benefits, allowed workers to receive payments for more than six months and allowed the self-employed, and others not typically eligible, to tap benefits.

It's clear that we are not out of the woods yet.

The question is how far we have to go, and whether we get turned around and end up heading back into the woods.