03 September 2017

The Fruit of Almost 25 Years of Dishonest, Cowardly, and Incompetent Diplomacy


This might be comical if it weren't an H-bomb
The DPRK just tested what they claim to be a full up thermonuclear warhead, what's more they claim that it is deliverable by an ICBM:
North Korea says it has tested a powerful hydrogen bomb that can be loaded on to an intercontinental ballistic missile, in a move that is expected to increase pressure on Donald Trump to defuse the growing nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula.

In an announcement carried on state TV, North Korea said the test, its sixth since 2006, had been a “complete success” and involved a “two-stage thermonuclear weapon” with “unprecedented” strength.

There has been no independent verification of the North’s claims that it has achieved a key goal in its nuclear programme - the ability to miniaturise a warhead so that it can fit on a long-distance missile.

Hours earlier, the regime released footage of what it claimed was a hydrogen bomb that would be loaded on to a new ICBM.

The TV announcement – accompanied by patriotic music and images of North Korean scenery and military hardware – said the test had been ordered by the country’s leader, Kim Jong-un.

The explosion was heralded by a 6.3-magnitude earthquake about six miles (10km) from North Korea’s Punggye-ri nuclear test site in the north-east of the country. It was felt over the Chinese border in Yanji.

South Korea’s meteorological administration estimated the blast yield at between 50 to 60 kilotons, or five to six times stronger than North Korea’s fifth test in September last year.

Kim Young-woo, the head of South Korea’s parliamentary defence committee said later that the yield was as high as 100 kilotons. One kiloton is equivalent to 1,000 tons of TNT.

The previous nuclear blast in North Korea is estimated by experts to have been about 10 kilotons.
There was a earlier claim of an H-bomb, but that was almost certainly a boosted fission device, which is an important step to miniaturizing warheads for use on missiles, but it isn't the whole megillah.

The most recent blast appears to be a significant improvement in yield.

What's more, if it is a true two stage thermonuclear device, it is no doubt a sophisticated one, because of the relatively low yield of the device.

The first US Teller-Ulam device, Ivy Mike, was 10 megatons, and the first Soviet device, the RDS-37, was about 1.5 MT.

As the warheads became more sophisticated, they became smaller and less powerful, so a 100 KT device could either be an improvement of a boosted device, or a true thermonuclear weapon.

In either case, it does imply that their understanding of the fabrication of nuclear weapons is advancing rapidly.

This is further bolstered by their claim that the warhead has an an adjustable yield.

The response of SecDef James "Mad Dog" Mattis was to threaten a massive military response to "Any threat to the United States or its territory, including Guam or our allies."

Because, I guess that our policy of threats and edmands for capitulation have worked so f%$#ing well.

Adults in the room, my ass.

Seriously, start by ending the f%$#ing Korean war, which is still technically going on, and then open a f%$ing embassy in Pyonyang.

It's not like we never bombed places where we've had formal diplomatic relations with.

4 comments :

Stephen Montsaroff said...

Why would this help?

Matthew Saroff said...

The DPRK is convinced that the US is merely waiting for the right time to launch a sneak attack.

Our behavior with them, refusing to talk or exchange ambassadors or end the damn Korean war, along with our behavior to others (Iraq, Libya) reinforces that belief, and leads them to believe that they need a robust nuclear arsenal to stop that.

Fundamentally, I'm inclined to believe that their view or reality is closer to reality than ours, which is that we can browbeat them and refuse direct talks until they capitulate at the beginning of negotiations, and then capitalism will spread throughout the entire Korean peninsula.

Stephen Montsaroff said...

That's a working description of paranoia. We're happy with them sitting there.

On the other hand, why have they refused to exchange ambassadors with the South as requested. Kidnapped foreign citizens, assinated members of the South's government in a third country, torpedoed ships.

It's rational from their perspective, they get what they want.

BTW, we stopped the South from building the bomb for them. That ought to count.

Matthew Saroff said...

Actually, no, we aren't happy with them sitting there.

Refusing to exchange ambassadors until the war has ended is the norm in foreign policy.

The way that the DPRK perceives our actions is how we have behaved toward other powers, most notably the overthrow of Libya. Iraq, our fomenting a coup in the Ukraine, and blithely ignoring our promises on NATO expansion to the Russians.

The DPRK not trusting us is a rational response to our actual history over the past 70 years.

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