It Won't Happen, It Makes Too Much Sense

In consideration of the current budget trends the US Air Force is looking at smaller and simpler single purpose satellites:

Smaller, simpler satellite designs could begin making their way into service for mainstream U.S. Air Force missions in the middle of the next decade, a shift that would break with a longtime tradition of building large, expensive spacecraft for the Pentagon.

This shift from complex and expensive satellites could come about because Gen. William Shelton, Air Force Space Command chief, and other military leaders are embracing the concept of “disaggregation,” or separating capabilities once resident on a single platform onto multiple systems. It could simplify satellite design and create what Shelton calls a “targeting problem” for an adversary looking to cripple U.S. space-based services, by expanding the number of satellites in a constellation.

If disaggregation materializes, it could underpin a shift for major constellations—military satellite communications, missile warning, precision timing and navigation, weather and space situational awareness. While it could prompt an end—or at least slow procurement—of today's satellites, the strategy could also be an opportunity for an industry facing reduced government spending to keep design teams intact.

Two possible near-term opportunities could be Shelton's interest in using a smaller, simpler approach for both the next-generation space situational awareness (SSA) and weather spacecraft.

The advantages are:

• You can develop and field satellites more quickly.
• If a contractor really screws the pooch in terms of performance, schedule, or cost, it's small enough to cancel.
• You can have real competition, or perhaps competitive dual sourcing between vendors.
• The resulting network would be a much more tolerant to a failure of a single satellite.

The downside is that the contractors who make this stuff will have less of an opportunity to over-promise and under-deliver, generating the necessary profits to employ retired generals as high priced consultants.

All things considered, I consider this initiative doomed because of this, but I'm a cynic.