Things are About to Get Interesting in Lebanon

The UN Tribunal investigating the assassination of Rafik Hariri in 2005 has indicted 4 people, including 2 senior Hezbollah members:

A United Nations-backed tribunal investigating the assassination of a former Lebanese prime minister delivered indictments to prosecutors here on Thursday, naming four men, including two suspected members of Hezbollah, in a six-year-old case that remade the country’s politics and unleashed years of discord.

The naming of members of Hezbollah, the Shiite Muslim movement that is the most powerful actor here, was expected for months. But the indictments marked the beginning of a judicial process that could bring unprecedented pressure on the group and its ally Syria, which faces growing isolation over its crackdown on a nearly four-month uprising.

Although the statements of Lebanese leaders were restrained, details of the indictment could prove inflammatory in a country still deeply divided between Hezbollah and its allies, on the one hand, and a disparate group of its critics and opponents. Only the names were leaked; the details of the indictment, so far, remain secret.

“It’s the beginning of something big, not small,” said Paul Salem, the director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. But, he added: “Names without a story doesn’t have much impact. If the public comes to see there’s massive evidence of a terrible story, that will have a big public impact by itself, but that hasn’t happened yet.”

According to legal experts, Lebanon has 30 days to serve the arrest warrants. If the suspects are not arrested in that time, the tribunal will make the indictments public and summon the suspects to court.

The facts of the case are no surprise, Hezbollah, and Syria's, finger prints are all over this, but the formal indictment certainly complicates things.