I'm Beginning to Think That I am Too Reflexively Pessimistic On the Economy

Admittedly, it is only one week, but this week's jobless claims numbers are very good, 407,000 initial claims, the lowest in almost 2½ years, the 4 week moving average fell to 436,000, continuing claims fell by 142K to 4.18 million, and emergency claims fell by 262,000 to 4.66 million.

This is getting close to the level where we can actually start seeing some real recovery in the job market.

I still think that we will see a double dip as what remains of the stimulus runs out, but I am less confident of that than I was, for example, a few months agol.