Economics Update (For the Week)

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Employment/Population Ratio Still at 1983 Levels


Long-term unemployment is still at a 40+ Year high


Personal bankruptcies on level with pre-bankruptcy reform numbers (H/t Calculated Risk)

Well, we have the employment numbers for March out now, and the March non-farm payroll numbers (NFP) rose by 162,000, with unemployment (U3)remaining at 9.7%, and the broader U6 unemployment number remained basically flat, increasing from 16.8% to 16.9% (seasonally adjusted).

This is an improvement. It's the largest NFP jump in 3 years.

That being said, some things to note:

• The US Census hired 48,000 temp employees in March.
• You need about 150,000 new jobs each month to accommodate people entering the workforce.
• Some of this may be hiring from prior months that was delayed because of the various snowpocalypse weather events that occurred.
• Long term unemployment increased.
• Involuntary part time employment increased (largely why U6 is up)
  

About 8 million people have lost jobs in this recessions, and at a NFP payroll increase of 162K a month, it would take more than 50 years for everyone who lost their jobs to get another job, so while it is an improvement, things are at best treading water, but the trend does appear to be getting better.

Still, the employment/population ratio is at a 27 year low, and long term unemployment is at a 40+ year high.

Also, we have

• A decrease in first time unemployment claims this week to 439,000, the lowest level since August 2008, with the 4-week moving average and the continuing claims falling as well, though emergency claims (26+ weeks) increased.
• State tax receipts are showing improvement as well, with collections expected to improve for the first time in 2 years.
• The Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing Diffusion Index rose to its highest reading in nearly 6 years.
• Automobile sales in the United States posted double digit year over year growth.

Still, all in all, I have to say that we are seeing a recovery, but it's a feeble and fragile recovery.

We still have some areas of concern, most notably that construction spending fell once again, and personal bankruptcies rose sharply.