Economics Update

Yeah, I know, It's no longer daily. A new job does that, and it's de rigeur on Thursday, because that's when the unemployment data comes out.

In this case, it's down 6k to 642K, but the 4 week moving average rose 5,000 to 475,500, and continuing claims, which I am no longer a part of were flat at 4.56 million.

Basically, dropping jobless claims don't mean rising employment until some point below 400K a week, so don't get your hopes up.

BTW, not getting their hopes up is what small businesses are doing right now, with the National Association of Independent businesses' index of small business optimism falling to the 2^nd lowest level ever recorded, and the Manpower Survey of hiring managers was down slightly, though their Asian numbers were somewhat improved.

In real estate, foreclosure rose by "only" 6% year over year, leading to paroxysms of prodigious positivism by the Panglossian press, but it means that foreclosures are still rising.

Meanwhile, in China, they are freaking out over their inflation levels, which have risen to a 2.7% annual rate (merciful heavens, get me the smelling salts).

Actually, if the PBC raises rates to reign in inflation, I don't see how they could keep their peg against the dollar, because higher rates push just about any currency up.