Economics Update

Click for full size

---

Perspective from the Wall Street Journal:
Falling Hours & Wages Drove Productivity Numbers Up


Long Term Unemployment


Unemployment vs. the Stress Tests, H/T Calculated Risk


Employment:Population Ratio, H/t Calculated Risk


Average Weekly Hours, h/t The Big Picture

Well, I already mentioned that unemployment (U3) broke 10%, with non-farm payrolls falling by 190,000, (better than September), so the next thing is the productivity number, where, "Non-farm business sector labor productivity increased at a 9.5 percent annual rate during the third quarter of 2009." OMFG, that is a huge number.

Normally, this would be good news, but soaring productivity means fewer workers needed for a task, so in the short term it would tend to stall any recovery in the labor markets.

On the brighter side, we are now getting reports that hiring of temporary workers are increasing, which might presage a more general hiring increase, as temps tend to be hired earlier, because they are easier to get rid of.

On the other hand, US consumer credit fell for the 8^th straight month in September, which indicates that the consumer is continuing to deleverage an pay down their debts.

It appears that wholesalers are deleveraging too, as wholesale inventories fell in September, though less than anticipated, and retail sales did rise, but inventories are at an all time low, 1.18 months.

In any case, the unemployment numbers drove a flight to safety, which drove Treasuries up, and their yields down.

This flight to safety has also drive both the dollar and the Yen up, while concerns about recovery has driven oil down.