Economics Update

Click for full size

---

Commercial Real Estate Prices


Home Builder Confidence Graph Pron Courtesy Calculated Risk

Ummm...If you think that the real estate implosion is done, then you haven't been following commercial real estate (CRE), where prices fell 3% in August, about a 42% annual rate,^* though the year over year decline was "just" 32%, and it's down 41% from its peak in 2007.

Remember, commercial mortgages typically come due after 5 years, so we are going to see a lot of folks defaulting on CRE mortgages as their time comes up, because they will be under water.

It's no wonder that the National Association of Home Builders' Confidence Index has fallen, particularly when juxtaposed with the expiration of the let's reinflate the bubble first time home buyer's tax credit at the end of November.

Note that to qualify for the credit, you must close before November 30, which means that if you buy now, you are starting to cut it close.

Still investors seem to be sanguine about economic prospects, as they are pulling out of US Treasuries and the dollar while crude oil hit a 1-year high.

^*The joys of compound interest. 3% a month over 12 months is not 36%, it's 1.03¹²=1.42=42%.