Economics Update

Unemployment Rates, Actuals vs. Geithner's "Stress Tests", courtesy Calculated Risk

Today, we get the unemployment rate (U3). It rose from 8.9% to 9.4%, a ½% rise.

Ouch.

By way of context, you can look at the BLS alternate measures table, and U6, which is probably closest to the figures used during the depression, though it still under counts relative to the older metric, rose from 15.8% to 16.4%.

Ugly number.

Of course, the press is reporting that the decrease in non-farm payrolls was less than expected, -345,000 as opposed to their projection of something in the -500K range.

Additionally, part of the increase in unemployment is workers becoming undiscouraged and actively looking for work, though the U6 number indicates that there was still an upward revision despite that.

Still, it appears that bondholders are betting on a recovery, they are bidding up the rates on treasuries, which is also driving up mortgage rates.

There is an argument between economists as to whether this is inflation concerns, or whether people have simply stopped fleeing headlong to the safety of US Government securities.

I'm with the latter school, but you can decide for yourselves.

As to where the economy is headed, I'd bet with the insiders and banks and such, and
insider sales as reported to the SEC are going up, implying that they are expecting worse for their firms.

Still, the jobs report drove both the dollar and oil up today.