Economics Update

Scary Picture of the Day, Industrial Production, Courtesy of Naked Capitalism

The big news is that there are rumors of GM preparing for bankruptcy, and mark my words, if they do go into bankruptcy, it will be because of the bond holders, not the union, and I do not see it working as a prepackaged filing, so we would see massive disruptions amongst all the auto plants of all brands in the US.

Were it not for the GM rumors, the lede would be the continued implosion of consumer credit, with grim February reports showing that U.S. consumer credit falling by $7.48 billion, an annual rate of 3.5%, and homeowner mortgage default rates have increased to 7%, up more than 50% from a year ago.

That being said, it's not just consumers and homeowners in trouble, as the default rate of "speculative-grade corporate borrowers" hit the highest rate since the depression in March.

Meanwhile in a harbinger of things to come in commercial real estate, New York City office rents fell 6% in the Q1 of 2009, and the vacancy rate is at 9.6%, up from 6.1% a year ago.

It is therefore unsurprising that the Business Roundtable’s survey of CEOs is showing falling confidence.

In the meantime, uncertainty, particularly the GM rumors have driven both the Yen and the US Dollar up, and has driven oil down.