Economics Update

The Manpower hiring survey has fallen to its lowest level in its history, and the survey started in 1962.

Meanwhile, a survey of economists say that the U.S. economy set should start to recover in the 2nd half of the 2009:

"Consumer spending and residential investment are expected to turn positive and begin boosting GDP growth in the third quarter of this year," the newsletter Blue Chip Economic Indicators said, summarizing its survey of private economists.

I want what the economists are smoking, because we are seeing no signs of either right now.

The fact the even previously overheated China saw deflation in January indicates to me that this will be longer and deeper than they think.

Additionally, while wholesale inventories fell in January, wholesale sales fell faster, and house prices fell 3.5% in January, according to the Integrated Asset Services index, indicating that the contraction is accelerating.

There is also the fact that the meltdown of the US megabanks has gotten worse, with us regulators looking at more bailout money for Citi, and the notification that the Federal Home Loan Bank of Seattle said it has fallen short of one of its capital requirements.

Note that the FHLBs are where the mortgages are being written right now, so this means that things are going pear shaped in the mortgage market.

With all this going on, it's no wonder that the 3-month LIBOR spread is up, indicating a tightening credit environment.

Some good news, though it means short term pain, which is that the Securities and Exchange Commission remains committed to reality based accounting, and so it will not abandon mark-to-market.

We also have oil rising on reports of OPEC production cuts, and the dollar falling on US bank worries.