Economics Update

Calculated Risk's semi regular review of credit conditions is showing a bit of a tightening. Nothing major, but when you start with awful, it's worse.

That being said, it sucks to be Japan, as they just swung to their first trade deficit in a decade, and it's a record too.

Meanwhile, the impending wave of impending loan defaults on commercial real estate appears to be starting in Cleveland and Detroit.

It is also looking like treasury bonds are falling, which means that yields are rising, implying that the markets are expecting interest rates to climb.

In energy, it appears that OPEC is looking at cutting production again, and it's member states are not cheating on production quotas, or at least cheating on them less than is expected, so oil is up today.

In addition, the upward trend in gasoline prices over the past few months continues unabated.

In currency, we continue to see a flight to safety, which is driving the dollar up, and the Canadian dollar hit a 4½ year low against the USD.