Democratic Candidate Takes Lead in Special Election to Replace Gillibrand

Honestly, even with the new poll numbers, this is a heavily Republican distract, so I my guess would be that the Republican has the advantage, particularly given the low turn out in special elections, so I would expect the 'Phant to win in this Tuesday's election.

In either case, Jim Tadesco (R), and Scott Murphy (D) contest is much closer than the district's fundamentals would suggest.