Economics Update

Well, we have another Asian economy cratering in Q4 of 2008, with Taiwan's GDP shrinking at an 8.36 annual rate. Unsurprisingly, they are now predicting a contraction for 2009.

This is "post Berlin Wall coming down shock-treatment elderly begging in streets" numbers.

In the US, producer prices posted a large gain, 0.8%, or about a 9½% inflation rate. I'm not certain if this is good or bad news, as the concern right now is deflation, but the impetus for the jump seems to be massive cash infusions from the Fed and the Treasury, which implies that we may be tiptoeing toward Zimbabwe.

Still, the jobless report was brutal, with initial claims remaining at 627,000, and continuing claims jumping to 4.99 million, the highest number ever.

I wouldn't expect manufacturing or building to be a part of a recovery any time soon though, as the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey hit a record low, as did the Architecture Billings Index (ABI).

Note that the ABI typically presages construction activity 9-12 months ahead.

Additionally, I think that we are near seeing some of the non AIG insurance giants failing, with the first indicator being that Prudential Financial Inc. being excluded from the Federal Reserve's commercial paper program, because Fitch Ratings downgraded them.

Note that Prudential Financial Inc. is the parent of Prudential Insurance, and that the insurance division can still use the "Commercial Paper Funding Facility," for a while, at least.

The dollar fell a bit today, largely on reduced concerns about the smaller nations in the Euro zone going completely broke.

In energy, oil rose, though it is still well below $40/bbl, because of a surprise drop in inventory.