Economics Update

Well, I guess the lede is that the Federal Reserve is cutting its 2009 economic forecast....Reality has a way of doing that.

Real estate is ugly today, with housing starts and applications for building permits falling to record lows, which is not surprising as it's clear that there is a significant overhang in inventory.

That overhang in inventory is why builder sentiment is at the staggering number 9, with 50 being neutral.

It's not pessimism, it's sanity.

We did get another jump in mortgage applications, but that's just a refi surge when the numbers go below 5%.

We also saw a record slide in GDP for OECD nations in Q4 of 2008.

On the brighter side, I'm not in the Ukraine, where industrial output shrank by 34.1%, which is return to the stone age type numbers.

We also have record lows from Taiwan's central bank, which cut its benchmark rate to 1.25%.

We also have some insurance news, including our friends the monoliner bond insurers.

First, we have MBIA splitting itself. It's separating its municipal bond insurance from its mortgage backed securities interests, which is likely a good thing in the long run, though S&P downgraded them from AA to BBB+, which, while not junk bond status, is rather too close to junk bond status for comfort.

Additionally, Moodys cut ratings mortgage insurers MGIC, Radian, Republic, and Genwort.

We are actually seeing some indications that the price drops in commodities are dropping, most notably the Baltic Dry Index of shipping costs has doubled recently, which indicates more cargo, particularly in terms of raw material.

Obama's housing rescue plan appears to have strengthened the dollar, and driven oil up today.