Economics Update

The big news, the Fed basically giving up and lowering its rates to what is effectively zero, I just posted, but that's not the only central bank news today.

The European Central Bank is considering cutting its overnight deposit rate, and the Bank of Japan is looking at 'quantitative' monetary easing, things like buying commercial paper outright.

I think that we may see the printing presses cranking up fairly soon, and as I've said before, this might not be a bad thing: inflating our way out of the housing crunch as a way to staunch the bleeding in the credit bubble. (I think I just violated some regulations on mixing metaphors, and the English Instructor Swat Team will come after me, red pencils blazing)

In any case, the Federal reserve cutting rates by ¾% has pushed the dollar down today and pushed treasury yields down to new lows.

That second one is part of the goal, the idea that lower yields will move people to more risky investments, but since people have already accepted negative yields, I'm not sure that it will make a difference.

In the mean time, those who worry about a deflationary spiral, are not relaxed folks today, with the CPI in the United States dropping by 1.9% (non-seasonably adjusted) and 1.7% (seasonably adjusted), the biggest drops since 1932 and 1947 respectively.

Anytime you hear an economic statistic, followed by, "since 1932," it is not a good thing....I'm just saying...

Needless to say, this is hitting with real estate too, with housing construction starts falling 18.9% in November, to 625K, the lowest number since records started being kept on this in 1959.

Anytime you hear an economic statistic, followed by, "since 195," or, "since records started being kept," it is not a good thing either....I'm just saying...

In Southern California, one of the areas hardest hit by the housing bubble, prices are down 5% for October-November, and 35% from November last year.

I've seen a few stories about how selling is picking up in California, but this really is people scavenging foreclosures and oft-mentioned the dead cat bounce.

In energy, OPEC meeting opened with calls to cut production by 2 million bbl/day, which, along with the falling dollar and Fed rate cut, pushed oil up, but only by a bit less than a dollar.

Retail gasoline was up again today, but still has not moved more than a penny above its recent low.