Economics Update

It's generally not been a good year for manufacturing and construction, with the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index falling to 49.9, with any number below 50 meaning contraction, though I wonder how much inflation is being measured as "growth", which is what I think is driving much of the US Commerce Department data showing an increase in factory orders.

I think that this is entirely export driven growth, a position that the abysmal auto sales reinforces, but these export sales are being driven by a cheap dollar, which will eventually drive interest rates higher in the US (foreigners will demand higher returns), crushing domestic consumption.

That being said, construction is clearly cratering, falling 0.6% in July, twice expectations.

Meanwhile, banking continues to look pretty heinous with the FDIC expanding office space in the expectation of a spate of bank failures, S&P downgrading two regional banks, and suggesting that 37% of regional banks will be down graded.

Additionally, when GMACis laying off thousands, you know that the industry is in dire straits.

With Euro zone inflation falling, it appears that the ECB will hold rates steady, for a while at least, which will serve to keep the dollar relatively strong, as evidenced by the US Dollar's rise today.

Since the hurricanes in the Gulf were relatively mild, oil and gasoline have continued their downward path.