08 July 2008

Another Couple of Seats Become Competitive

This time, it's the brothers Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart, the wingnuttiest of the anti-Castro wingnuts, who appear to be vulnerable.

Remembering that undecided tend to break for the challenger 2:1 ratio:
Lincoln Diaz-Balart leads former Hialeah mayor Raul Martinez 41 percent to 37 percent in the poll, with 22 percent undecided. Mario Diaz-Balart leads Joe Garcia, former chairman of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party, 44 percent to 39 percent, with 17 percent undecided.
Margin of error is 5% which puts both candidates within the margin of error.

I would also say that the undecides are likely to break even harder against them than the normal trend, as the Diaz-Balart's are the unelected royalty of the right wing Cuban emigre community, and that community is likely already fully plumbed, while the undecideds are likely non-Cuban Hispanics and whites who have increasingly become, particularly since the Elian affair, disgusted with the anti-Castro whack job community.

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