Economics Update

ADP's private report suggests 40,000 new jobs, though it should be noted that , "U.S. companies' planned layoffs rose 15 percent in May from April to the highest monthly total since December 2005" it has been noted that, "ADP has been inaccurate of late, overpredicting payrolls," so I would wait for the government figures.

On the other hand, productivity rose more than predicted in Q1 of 2008, though all indications is that this was not more stuff to do, but simply less stuff doing it, "Aggressive cuts in worker hours will help shield corporate profits and keep wage-related cost pressures under control, helping to reassure the Fed."

Personally, I'm inclined to take the pessimistic assessment of this, because the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) non-manufacturing index fell to 51.7, indicating a softness in the service sector.

Additionally, we have the forecasting a world wide growth rate of only 1.8% this year, and weekly mortgage applications fell to a 6-year low.

Inflation worries are now weighing down the dollar, though oil prices are down a bit more to $122.48/bbl, but retail gas prices rose to a new high again, $3.983/gal.

Lastly, we have a visit from our old friends, the monoline insurers, with Ambac and MBIA getting hammered because Moody's is finally considering a downgrade on their debt.