Economics Update

I think that the best indication that we are well into a recession is that unpaid utility bills, as well as service cutoffs, are going through the proverbial roof. People can't afford the mortgages, or the utilities, or so it seems.

BTW this is a very good pictorial representation of the credit freeze:


Click pic for PDF. (H/t econobrowser)

Oil hit an all time high, less than a dime less than $120/bbl, which means that inflation is still a problem, but don't tell helicopter Ben, because the markets have already priced in another rate cut from the Fed.

As I've said before, it won't matter, the fed is pushing on a string, but the fact that the Euro zone looks to be in for a round of slow growth and inflation, aka stagflation, with inflation of over 3% (their goal is 2%), so they will likely raise rates, as the ECB does not have maintaining employment as a part of its charter, just controlling inflation.

Rates going up in Europe should push the dollar down, which is why I find it confusing that the done better against the Euro in the past three days than it has since 2005, but I'm not sure how long this will last, as Japanese investors are moving away from US treasuries, which is significant, as they are the largest holders of US treasuries.

In real estate we have a new record for vacant homes in the US, 2.9%, the highest level since record keeping began in 1959.

Note that this does not include rental properties, and it's pretty grim.

For those of you who are considering picking up something cheap in foreclosure, be warned, trash outs are way up Trashouts, here are stories from Massachusetts and Nevada.

We are talking serious stuff, sinks and bathtubs ripped out, and in some cases, vandalism along the lines of cement down the pipes. Factor that into a sales price.

I would also argue that it's likely that we may shortly start seeing violence against people who purchase at auction, so do not enter into this likely.