Economics Update

Let's see, we have Bernanke, testifying before the Congress's Joint Economic Committee, saying that there is just the slightest possibility that the US Economy might possibly be slipping into a recession, which is Fed speak for, we are totally boned.

Not surprisingly, the US dollar tumbles, because recession=further rate cuts.

Truth be told, given the current nature of the credit markets, the Fed could lower interest rates to zero and it wouldn't lower short term rates. They are pushing on a string, and people are unsure about the amount of risk, so rates won't go down.

On quick numbers, we have new mortgage applications falling 29% (refi is way down too), oil prices rising, up to about $101.20/bbl, and gas prices at a record high, $3.287/gal.

On the good news side, ADP's private report is showing an increase in private sector payrolls, though I would rever the reader to this article on underemployment, which points to growing numbers of people working part time jobs, a sign of employment weakness, for some context:

Keith Hall, the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which prepares the monthly jobs reports, said in Congressional testimony last month that this broader measure [underemployment report] stood at 8.9% in February, up from 8.1% a year ago.

"We've clearly had a broad weakening in the labor market," Hall said.

My perspective, and I am an mechanical engineer, which means that I value tangible goods in my world view, is that the fact that factory orders are still declining, -2.5% in January, and -1.3% in February, is a better indicator, though I also consider the fact that car sales tanked last month, including Toyota, significant too.

Of course, economists, and other such folks, tend to look at consumer spending, so the fact that Discover Financial Services reported that its consumer spending confidence index is down might be a bigger deal for them.

In real estate, we have Manhattan condo and Co-op sales collapsing. It appears that the market is now crushing, "location, location, location".

And on the more surreal side of real estate, we are finding an epidemic of copper pipe theft from abandoned homes. The hed is a real eye catcher, " Some homes worth less than their copper pipes".

This makes the USA sound like it's suffering from Baghdad level looting.