Bogus Job Creation Data?

I would be stunned if the Bush Administration would take a nonpartisan collection of data, and massage it for political advantage. What if they did it on Global Warming Data ANWR Drilling Stem Cell Research Morning After Contraceptives Safe Sex Preventing AIDS Lead Paint Mercury Iraq

Well, it now appears that Bush and His Evil Minions^™ are overstating job growth in the US, see Dean Baker and Barry Ritholtz.

Basically, it comes down to the fact that the BLS cannot get questionnaires regarding employment to all the businesses out there. A number of businesses, particularly newer and smaller ones, slip through the cracks.

It's called birth-death adjustment, and in 2007, it guesstimated about 300,000 more jobs than were actually created.

Dean Baker notes that the BLS is showing that the restaurant sector is shown to have added 48,000 jobs in January and February, but restaurant spending is shown to have decreased by about 0.6% over the same period.

Barry Ritholtz notes that the B/D adjustment accounted for 80% of all new jobs in 2007, and he has a nice picture of 2008 adjustments:


Given Baker's data on restaurants, I would circle hospitality too, but the idea that construction and financial services are surging is just loopy.