Economics Update

I'm not sure if it even qualifies as news any more, but
oil hit a new record today, topping $107/bbl. Gasoline prices are following this trend, with prices rising $0.09/gallon over the past two weeks.

When this is combined with the fact that houshold wealth fell by $533 billion, (3.6% apr), in q4 of 2007. That's without considering inflation.

When inflation is taken into account, all of 2007 is down.

In the ever entertaining world of the monoliner insurance, MBIA, is asking Fitch to stop rating its insurance units. They think that Fitch's model is inaccurate, because Fitch is still considering a downgrade.

MBIA is insolvent, Fitch gets it, and S&P and Moody's don't.

As a result of this, we are seeing more of the non-profit and state run college lenders unable to secure financing, and hence unable to make loans.

Remember, these loans cannot be discharged by bankruptcy, and they are federally guaranteed, and no one will buy the paper.

This might explain why Lehman Bros. is cutting 5% of its workforce, about 1400 jobs.

One bit of good news is that China's trade surplus dropped 63% in February, though one wonders how much of that is currencies readjusting, how much is a slowdown in the world economy, and how much is the winter storm that shut down the country for about a week.

BTW, its official, Malaysia is a Kleptocracy. That's the only way to explain why, following a defeat that kept the National Front in the majority, but at less than 2/3, that the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index fell so sharply that they had to shut down trading.

This wasn't even a change in party rule, just a drop below 2/3, and everyone was scrambling to get out because their business positions were predicated on corruption.

O happy day.

For what it's worth, things are not much better in the US, where hedge funds are seeing margin calls on US treasuries. If treasuries go bad, forget the Honda full of silver, you need ammunition and canned goods.