20 January 2008

What The NV and SC Contests Mean, My Take

First and foremost, Mitt Romney, who already had over half the total delegates selected, has further extended his delegate lead, by winning more convincingly in a larger state.

Second, I agree with Atrios:
I think McCain is easy to beat as a candidate, but I don't think my mental health will survive the press fluffing of him for all these months.
I would also add that I will be missing the Freddie Thompson clown show. That stuff wrote itself.

On the Democratic side, I think that this was a significant victory for Clinton in a number of ways:
  • First and foremost, Hillary won the contest, regardless of the total delegate count. This does not bode well for California.
  • She completely blew Obama among Hispanics, notwithstanding his bragging about getting that vote in the senate race against Alan Keys. The only segment of the electorate to go for Keyes is the batsh#$ insane one.
  • She won 4 out of 6 of the special caucus locations on the strip.
  • I think that Edwards is done. He did not break double digits, and the data is fairly clear, though quite surprising to me, that Edwards voters will go Clinton as a second choice.
Obviously, we have South Carolina, where Obama is favored, but I think that these, and the generally superior organization of Clinton, will mean that she seals the deal on February 5.

Of cours, my predictive powers only marginally exceed Alan Keyes sanity, so don't put any money down on my predictions.

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