09 October 2007

The Employment Numbers are Weaker than They Appear

Nouriel Roubini's observations are as follows:
  • The August revision (+93k) was almost entirely government jobs.
  • Private sector employment gains have averaged (+73K), which is very weal.
  • 80% of job created in September were either in government or in health/education services.
  • Housing job losses are under-reported, since illegal aliens are not counted in this figure.
  • The 2007 benchmark for employment figures turns out to be 297k less than predicted.
  • Year over year job growth has been falling for at least a year.
We are in a recession folks (me, not Mr. Roubini speaking).

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