03 August 2007

Is Rumored Arms Sale to Iran a Pretext for An Attack?

There is a report that Iran will be buying a significant number of Sukhoi Su-30 multi role jets in the Jerusalem Post.

The specific report says that they will be buying 250 fighters, they will be purchasing aerial refueling tankers.

I call bull s$%#.

Let's look at the points:
  • This amounts to a very significant chunk of change. At least $6 billion, and more likely $25 billion total cost. They don't have the money for this. They have already had riots over gas rationing, because they lack sufficient money to reimport enough gasoline (they lack refining capability) for their needs.
  • They have no experience with the aircraft.
  • This is roughly equal to the total number of fighters that they currently deploy.
  • They have a significant amount of western systems that would be difficult to integrate into the platform.
  • The Russian government, and Sukhoi both deny it vehemently, which would not be the case with this huge an order.
I think that this got leaked to a friendly source (the J. Post) in the sort ot PR campaign that we swa before the invasion of Iraq.

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