Indian Air Force says Rafale Remains in MMRCA Competition

Remember when I said over the weekend that the Dassault Rafale had been dropped from the Indian MMRCA competition?

Well, it appears that the reports of the French Fighter's demise have been exaggerated.

The Indian Air Force has denied reports that the Dassault Rafale has been eliminated from the country’s medium multi-role combat aircraft competition.

“We have not ruled anyone out yet in the MMRCA competition,” says an IAF spokesman, who confirmed that the service is responsible for evaluating the contenders. “All of the tests have not been completed. The technical evaluations are only just over and we are scheduled to begin the flight tests next month. Everyone is still in the competition.”

Last week, several Indian newspapers reported that the Rafale was eliminated after failing the technical evaluation. .....

No clue as to what is going on here, or why.

Indian Drops Rafale from MMRCA Trials

Unofficial reports from a "senior Indian Defence Ministry" are that, "Dassault was unable to give full technical bid requirements, but this is obviously a rather vague and uninformative.

I find this very odd. Dassault and India have a long and established relationship, with India owning and operating Mirage 2000s, and at one point, offered to transfer the whole Mirage 2000 line to India.

The idea that they did not cross their "I"s and dot their "T"s, and thus was dropped from the Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) competition is curious.

In any case, it appears that the Official MMRCA trials in August, with the, Boeing F/A-18, Lockheed Martin F-16, Eurofighter Typhoon, RSK MiG-35 and Saab Gripen.

Update on Indian MMRCA Competition

Proposals for the Indian Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) competition were sent in recently. See my earlier post here)

A good rundown on the competitors is at the link, though I count the IAF's familiarity with Russian equipment as a plus, not a minus.

The competitors are the MiG-35 (a Mig-29 derivative), Gripen, Rafale, Typhoon, F-16 and F-18E.

I think that the US fighters may be ruled out because of the effects of possible sanctions in the future, the US is much more aggressive in these actions than the French or British.

The Rafal and Typhoon are too pricey.

This leaves the MiG-35 and Gripen, with the former being cheaper to buy but more expensive to operate. The upgraded Gripen closes some of the gap in payload and range, but both are far superior to the MiG-21s that they would replace.

Then again, we know how good my predictions are.

Let's Talk About the Backstory Here

When Dassault won the medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) contract, it wanted to partner with Reliance Industries, but the Indian Government insisted on local co-production be conducted by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), the company that took over 30 years to deliver the massively under-performing Tejas fighter aircraft.

When Dassault saw the level of technical competence at HAL, they refused to work with them, figuring that it would be a complete horror show, and they would be on the hook for this, so now we have India signing a deal for 36 French made fighters:

India has concluded a deal to acquire 36 Dassault Rafale fighters, with a contract signed in New Delhi by the nation’s defence minister, Manohar Parrikar, and his French counterpart Jean-Yves Le Drian on 23 September.

The deal is worth €7.75 billion ($8.69 billion) for the French-built aircraft along with associated weapons and a support package.

Finalisation of the contract brings to a close a long-running acquisition process to equip the Indian air force with the Rafale, which was selected as the winner of its medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) tender in 2012, defeating the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and Eurofighter Typhoon. Other previous candidates for the deal included the Lockheed Martin F-16, RAC MiG-35 and Saab Gripen.

The air force was originally slated to acquire 126 aircraft via the programme, but the original deal ran aground over cost concerns. [Cost concerns my ass. Dassault found HAL incapable of executing a co-production deal] It was revived by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his visit to France in 2105, when he declared that 36 aircraft would be acquired in “fly-away” condition from Dassault. This was keeping in view the “critical operational necessity” of the service, he said at the time.

This was the Rafale's first foreign sale, and it was a very big deal for Dassault, but they could not get co-production to work, but the fact that they had this order made it a viable choice on other foreign markets, which is why there are sales to Egypt and Qatar as well, so the deal, even if much diminished was a lifesaver for the Rafale production line.

The ineptitude of the Indian defense establishment in developing new systems (see the Tejas, the Arjun tank, the INSAS rifle system, etc.) remains staggering.

India Restructures MMRCA Competition

It appears that because of an inability of the Indian defense bureaucracy to evaluate proposals in a timely manner has required that the schedule for the downselect to 3 competitors for the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) program be pushed back an indeterminate length of time, (paid subscription required) which, under the terms of the contract, requires a rebid from the competitors.

FWIW, my money is still on MiG winning, the Indians already fly the aircraft, and the Eurofighter, Rafale, and Superhornet are really too large to be "Medium," the F-16 is also operated by the Pakistanis, and the Gripen, by virtue of being Swedish, does not have the requisite geopolitical pull.

Then again, the final selection still appears to be at least 3 years off, and my powers of prognostication are in serious doubt.

Dassault Goes Hard Sell on Indian MMRCA Program

One of the most hotly contested fighter procurement programs in the world right now is the Indian Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) program, which is intended to replace India's aging MiG-21s, and Dassault is very aggressively pursuing this.

Basically, Dassault has stated that it has gotten clearance from the French government for near total technology transfer.

Additionally unlike all of the other western competitors, its US content is near zero, and so is not subject to the US export restrictions.

To refresh your memory (more here), the competitors are competitors are the MiG-35 (a Mig-29 derivative), Gripen, Rafale, Typhoon, F-16 and F-18E, and my analysis in my earlier posts stands, I think that the Gripen, F-16, F-18E, and Eurofighter are all too tied up in US export restrictions, that the Eurofighter and Rafale are too expensive, which leaves the MiG-35.

I think that the Gripen's low cost over its lifetime, it's about ½ the size of most of the competitors may give it an outside chance, but my money is still on the MiG.

The Indians have been using Russian equipment for about half a century, and the low purchase price and familiarity will mean a lot here.

Gripen NG AESA Radar in Flux

Originally, SAAB had contracted with Thales for its AESA antenna to be integrated with the Gripen NG, and while this will happen, Thales is refusing to make this available for production variants, because they are heavily tied into the Dassault Rafale, so far winless in export competitions, and the Gripen is competing against it for the Indian MMRCA and the Brazilian fighter competition.

This is further complicated by the fact that while the Thales system is compatible with the existing signal processor from the Saab PS-05 MSA radar already flying on the JAS-39 C, some of the successors would likely require that that this be changed, increasing integration costs.

So SAAB is casting about for another radar, hopefully one that is US content free, so as to avoid US export restrictions.

It Sucks to be Dassault Right Now

It looks like United Arab Emirates has reopened its fighter competition, meaning that the "done deal" to be the first export customer for the Rafale is now in doubt:

France’s long-running campaign to sell up to 60 Dassault Rafales to the United Arab Emirates faces a shock last-minute challenge, with the Eurofighter consortium having been asked to submit a proposal based on its Typhoon combat aircraft.

News of the development broke on the eve of the Dubai air show, where both types are scheduled to take part in the daily flying display.

Sources have confirmed that the UK provided a formal briefing about the Typhoon to UAE officials on 17 October, after being asked to explore how it might meet future fast jet requirements.

The same thing happened with Morocco, when what appeared to be a done deal fell through.

The Wiki says that the F/A-18 is still in the mix, but I think that it would be a long shot, since the primary driver for going with the Rafale in the first place was to have part of their inventory be non-US built.

Stephen Trimble seems to think that this might be an effort to make Dassault more flexible on price:

Riad Kahwaji, chief executive officer of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA), told The DEW Line that latest manoeuvres are a clear signal: the UAE air force thinks France's price for the Rafale is too high. Major fighter deals are never immune from politics, but this deal is purely political. The UAE is buying the Rafale to balance its reliance on US-made weapons, including its fleet of 80 Lockheed F-16 Block 60s. Perhaps thinking the UAE has no other options, Dassault may have submitted a monopolistic price, Kahwaji said.

Even after negotiating exclusively with France for more than three years, the UAE has just re-opened the competition. The DEW Line's colleague, Craig Hoyle, broke the story on Flightglobal yesterday that the UAE issued a request for proposals to the Typhoon, setting up a second competition between the same pair of fighters vying for India's medium multi-role aircraft (MMRCA).

I'd love to have the antacid concession to Dassault's corporate offices right now.

Huh, I Don't Know How I Missed This………

But the Dassault Rafale has won the Indian MMRCA competition, and will be delivering 126 fighters.

It appears that the Rafale largely beat the Typhoon largely on the basis of cost, though the fact that the Rafale is currently more capable in the strike role probably helped, as did what appeared to be a pretty good offset deal.

It's interesting that the final decision came down to the cheapest of the two most expensive competitors (other competitors, were the MiG-35, Gripen, F-16, and F/A-18).

I still wonder how much of this was driven by a concern that the French were seen as more independent of US foreign policy.

Further Delays in Indian MMRCA Competition

There is still no word on when when field trials will start for the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft fighter competition. (paid subscription required)

One of the issues that complicates this is mother nature: If the demonstrations do not finish by July, then they run into delays as a consequence of the monsoon season.

Current competitors for the medium fighter are the, "Boeing F/A-18, Lockheed Martin F-16, Eurofighter Typhoon, Mikoyan MiG-35, Saab Gripen, and Dassault Rafale."

It's intended to replace their fleets of older model MiG-21s, which are at end of life.

My guess would be the the MiG-35 has the inside track, the Indian AF already has operational experience with the MiG-29, though the least expensive over the life time is very likely the Gripen.

It's unclear to me whether SAAB is submitting the base Gripen, or the improved Gripen NG.

Saab Looks to Go Feet Wet on Indian Gripen Proposal

Credit: SAAB CONCEPT

In an effort to improve its chances to sell its Gripen to India for the MMRCA competition Saab has once mooted the possibility of an aircraft carrier capable Gripen:

Saab believes modifying the Gripen NG to meet an Indian requirement for a carrier-borne fighter would add only 400 kg. (880 lb.), giving the aircraft—dubbed Sea Gripen—an empty weight of 7,500-8,000 kg.

…………

The Sea Gripen would require a new main undercarriage and nose gear, airframe strengthening in specific areas and a redesigned arrestor hook. Given the comparatively small size of the Gripen, this obviates the need for folding wings. The company is proposing Sea Gripen as a “partner program,” with the first target country being India.

Even for an aircraft as light as the Gripen, having a delta of only 400 kg (880 lb) is pretty impressive, so I'm wondering if they are trying the same thing that was proposed for the Eurofighter Typhoon, when it was proposed to create an auto-land system that allowed for a flare before landing to the need to reinforce the landing gear and structure.

[on edit]

There is also the possibility that Swedish operational requirements, which include the ability to operate from austere fields, such as roadways, may have already resulted in a landing gear that is rather more robust than those found on the normal western jet fighter.

Saab Hooks Up With Tata to Get Leg Up on MMRCA Deal

Well, Saab is certainly going all out on India's program to replace its aging MiG-21s, entering into a joint development with TATA for the Gripen NG.

While Saab claims that Saab VP Kjell Moller says that, ""The contract will continue irrespective of us getting the Indian order," I'm inclined to believe that this is primarily a quid pro quo.

India Shortlists Rafale and Typhoon for MMRCA Shortlist

Well, I was wrong in my guess that MiG would win this.

But India has narrowed the bid to the French and the British:

The United States lost a hard-fought competition to supply a new generation of fighter jets to India, which has listed two European manufacturers as the finalists for an order estimated to be worth $10 billion.

The decision was a blow for President Obama, who had pushed hard for this and other defense deals during his visit to India in November as part of his agenda to deepen and broaden the United States’ relationship with India. The American ambassador to India, Timothy J. Roemer, who separately announced on Thursday that he would resign from his post for personal reasons, said the United States was “deeply disappointed by this news.”

While political and economic relations between India and the United States have been warming for years, American arms makers have struggled to win big contracts here. After decades of frosty relations during the cold war, which pushed India to rely extensively on the Soviet Union for military hardware, many in the Indian defense establishment are still wary of American intentions and United States military aid to Pakistan, India’s main adversary.

The American bid to build the fighters came from Boeing and Lockheed Martin. Boeing had offered its F/A -18 jets, and Lockheed Martin pitched its F-16 planes. But India instead narrowed the list to the Rafale fighter from Dassault and the Eurofighter Typhoon jet made by a consortium of European companies. Russian and Swedish bids were also turned down.

I'm not sure what the calculus here.

These aircraft are clearly more capable in terms of payload and range than the Rafale (which is the light weight of the bunch) and the F-16, and faster than the F-18 (so is just about everything flying with an afterburner), and likely more reliable than the MiG.

My handicapping of the race? I think that Dassault is desperate for an export sale, and so will be willing to take a hit up front, and when this is juxtaposed with the fact that the IAF already has experience operating the Mirage 2000, I would give it a slight edge.

The French Finally Start Making Foreign Sales for the Rafale

For a number of years now, the Rafale has been the bridesmaid, and never the bride, on foreign sales.

The logjam broke when India selected the Dassault aircraft as the winner of its MMRCA competition.

The contract was for 126 aircraft, with the first 18 being delivered by Dassault, and the remainder being locally manufactured by state owned Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL).

At this point contract negotiations because Dassault was unwilling to offer performance guarantees for the aircraft manufactured by HAL:

After months of seeing Dassault Aviation being browbeaten in the Indian press, French arms procurement agency DGA defended its contractor, asserting that a 2012 agreement to provide India with Rafale fighter jets never committed the company to guarantee aircraft manufactured in India at state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL). However, a recent senior adviser to HAL’s management tells Aviation Week that guaranteeing HAL’s work is not the issue, but that the French are being “rigid” and refusing to stand behind the integrity of the design.

“Dassault will not be responsible for the whole contract. It is a co-management setup,” says French defense procurement chief Laurent Collet-Billon, who was clear that France will not assume full liability for HAL-built Rafales. “It cannot be a problem, because it was not in the request for proposals [RFP].”

Speaking to reporters during an annual media address Feb. 9, France’s arms procurement chief said the €10.2 billion ($12 billion) agreement—which has been under negotiation for more than three years—calls for the first 18 of 126 Rafale jets to be built in France. After that, HAL would take over production of the remaining 108 aircraft.

………

Moreover, a retired senior Indian military officer who was involved in the drafting of the original RFP and has been a senior advisor to HAL, tells Aviation Week that “the French don’t want to be accountable in any way. The original equipment manufacturer [OEM] has to stand guarantee with respect to design and integrity of design. The French are trying to get away from the OEM’s responsibility.” He added that the defense ministry would eventually have to choose between the Rafale and the Fifth-Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA), a HAL-developed variant of the Sukhoi T-50.

………

Dassault’s response to the RFP was influenced by a planned partnership with Reliance Industries, a $75 billion private-sector energy-based conglomerate that planned to expand into aerospace and defense. Reliance would have performed much of the manufacturing work on the locally built Rafales in new-build facilities. However, the Indian government has insisted that HAL build the aircraft. The original manufacturers of the Su-30MKI and Jaguar were not asked for similar guarantees.

The subtext here is that Dassault has absolutely no confidence in the ability of HAL to make Rafales in a timely or competent manner.

After much negotiation, it was offered that HAL be upgraded to co-contractor status, which would have the effect of increasing technical transfer at the cost of HAL being responsible for any guarantees on the aircraft that they build.

While all of this was going on, an actual sales deal was signed with Egypt, which would have 24 jets pulled out of the current pipeline for the French AF, and modified slightly. (Basically pulling wiring for nuclear weapons and going with a non-NATO communications system)

The fact that Rafael finally had some export orders, along with the fact that India has a desperate need for new airframes, (it's aging fleet of MiG-21s are crashing with alarming regularity) India and France cut a deal for a government to government transfer of 36 of the fighter jets:

India will now negotiate direct purchase of 36 Rafale jets from France through a government-to-government deal worth around $4 billion, without any "Make in India" or technology transfer component, to meet IAF's urgent "critical operational necessity" for new fighters.

After Modi held extensive talks with French President Francois Hollande in Paris on Friday, it was announced that fresh commercial negotiations will now be held for the direct acquisition of two Rafale squadrons (each has 18 jets) in "flyaway" condition.

"France has agreed to fast-track the deliveries and give us better terms for the outright purchase and longer maintenance support for the jets. Finding the money for this contract should not be a problem since it will have to be paid in installments linked to deliveries," said a source.

Basically, the French came away with the upside of an Indian deal, it removed uncertainty in other nations about being a "first mover" on the export front, which led to the Egypt deal, and they did not have to hitch their wagon to the famously f%$#ed up HAL, which, as evidenced by the 30+ year and counting development of the Tejas lightweight fighter, is something that would have bitten Dassult in the butt at a later date.
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And now there is the announcement of the sale of an additional 24 aircraft to Qatar.

After what must have been over a decade of uncertainty, it appears that Dassault will stay in the fighter business.

More power and more payload for Gripen demo-21/06/2007-Paris-Flight Daily News

The Gripen can already supercruise clean, and the additional thrust should allow it to do so while carrying more.

More power and more payload for Gripen demo-21/06/2007

By Jon Lake
Saab chose the Paris Air Show to reveal details of its new Gripen Demonstrator programme. The Gripen Demo aircraft will act as a technology demonstrator and testbed for an upgrade configuration for the Swedish air force, and as the prototype for planned ‘Future Gripens’, including the Gripen N for Norway, the Gripen DK for Denmark, and perhaps even for a variant to meet India’s MMRCA requirement.

....

The Gripen Demo aircraft will have a revised configuration, with a new forward-retracting main landing gear that frees up internal volume for extra fuel, and with distinctive bulged wingroot fairings underwing providing further increases in internal volume. The use of these fairings replaces the upper fuselage conformal tanks seen on previous studies, and will provide an extra 38% of internal fuel, taking the total to 3,130 kg.

The relocated and beefed-up undercarriage will allow a 2-tonne increase in maximum take off weight, to 16t. This in turn will allow the aircraft to carrier heavier warloads (up to 6,000kg), and to facilitate this, the Gripen Demo will have new side by side under-fuselage pylons (augmenting the single centreline pylon) and underwing hardpoints capable of carrying twin pylons.

The aircraft will be powered by a new 22,000lb engine, provisionally dubbed the F414G. ..... The F414G will deliver some 4,000lb more thrust than the RM-12, giving a useful boost in performance. Some sources give the new engine a 26,000lb thrust rating – doubling the advantage.

The aircraft will also be fitted with an AESA radar, probably based on Ericsson’s long-running NORA and Saab/Selex’ M-AESA programmes.

...