China Working on a Conventional Aircraft Carrier

Note the towbar on the front gear

They are already in the process of developing a CATOBAR variant of the Flanker:

China has stepped up development of Catapult-Assisted Take-Off But Arrested Recovery (CATOBAR) operations for its carriers, with the appearance of a Shenyang J-15 Flying Shark carrier-borne fighter with CATOBAR apparatus and continued construction of supporting land-based infrastructure.

In mid-September photos surfaced online of a J-15 with what appears to be a catapult launch bar on its nose wheel. These are used to couple the aircraft to the catapult of the carrier during the launch sequence, and would be the latest indication that China’s rumored third aircraft carrier will utilize the CATOBAR system of aircraft launch and recovery.

It is not clear whether this aircraft is a new-build prototype for the CATOBAR J-15, or one of the six original J-15 prototypes modified with a new nose wheel. Also noteworthy is that this J-15 is powered by the indigenous Shenyang-Liming WS-10 Taihang turbofan. Although already in widespread use with China’s land-based J-11 fighters, the Chinese engine has never gone to sea during trials and operations on China’s current sole aircraft carrier, Liaoning.

This is not a surprise.

While getting the operations right (an aircraft carrier deck is a dangerous place) is a non trivial matter, the basic technology of steam catapult launches is over 60 years old.

As an aside, the Chinese are proceeding on this incrementally, so I would rather expect that their 1^st carrier with a catapult to be in the size range somewhere between the Clemenceau (25,000 T) and the Charles de Gaulle (48,000 T) size, much smaller than a typical supercarrier (~100,000 T).

I would expect China to field a CATOBAR carrier as a part of a full carrier group in the next 7-12 ears.

Is This a Supercarrier?

Video courtesy of RT.

China has launched its first indigenously produced aircraft carrier:

China’s first domestically built aircraft carrier, formally named the Shandong, was launched on Wednesday in the latest display of Beijing’s growing naval power.

………

The carrier, which had earlier been temporarily named the Type 001A, is China’s second after the Liaoning, a refitted former Soviet Union-made carrier that was put into commission in the PLA Navy in 2012.

The carrier, 315 metres long and 75 metres wide, has a cruising speed of 31 knots and a displacement of 70,000 tonnes.

It is slightly larger than the Liaoning, China’s first aircraft ­carrier, which was refurbished from the semi-completed Soviet carrier Varyag, which Beijing bought from a Ukrainian shipyard in 1998.

………

Even though its layout is almost the same as the Liaoning, the Shandong features new equipment and a more advanced operational concept, including a bigger hangar to carry more J-15 fighter jets and more space on deck for helicopters and other aircraft.

Type 001A


USS Kennedy and Saratoga

At 70,000 metric tons (Tonnes) displacement, this ship displaces more than Forrestal Class, Kitty Hawk Class, and the John F. Kennedy at normal load, but it lacks catapult gear, which to my mind is a requirement fo be called a "Supercarrier".

One of the thing that I find interesting is the size of the island.

The superstructure is MUCH larger than those for the now retired) US conventional supercarriers.

My guess is that the air defense suite for the Type 001A is rather more extensive than those of US carriers, and that this additional island space accommodates more types of radars as well as launchers for missiles of a type that are typically carried by the carrier's escorts in a US carrier group.

The Chinese are very early in the process of learning how to operate a carrier battle group, and so are providing capabilities on their carrier, at the expense of deck space and (possibly) sea keeping, that the US has found to be superfluous.

Remember Skybolt?

I am referring, of course, to the GAM-87 Skybolt air-launched ballistic missile, which was developed by the United States in the early 1960s as a was to penetrate increasingly capable Soviet air defense systems.

It was canceled when the Polaris SLBM was determined to better fit the needs.

We now have evidence that the People's Republic of China is developing a very similar system, though it will likely not be used as a strategic system.

It appears to be a derived from the mobile land base DF-21 of the It will be used to target aircraft carriers, and the air launched capabilities will force carrier groups even further from China, particularly since the platform China's upgraded Badger the H-6N, is designed with air to air refueling capabilities:

A centrefold graphic recently flourished intimate details of a Chinese bomber carrying a stark new weapon. State-controlled media has since gone into cover-up mode. But military analysts think Beijing may have been caught with its pants down.

The government produced Modern Ships magazine has splashed high-resolution computer-generated images of China’s most recent addition to its strategic bomber line-up – the H-6N – over the front and feature pages.

But that’s not what drew the eye of the world’s defence thinkers.

The graphics showed the new bomber carrying a huge ballistic missile slung under its fuselage. And that missile looks a lot like one of a family of ballistic weapons deployed by China’s People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) as aircraft carrier killers.

I do not think that this is an unintentional release of information.

After all, how can you deter a CVBG if they do not know about the threat.

The carrier aircraft is extensively modified as well:

Defence enthusiasts noted several strange things about the latest N variant of China’s Xian H-6 series of strategic bombers when it was unveiled to the public at the 70th National Day parade in October.

The state-controlled Xinhua news service simply said it was a “homemade strategic bomber capable of air refuelling and long-range strike”.

But when a flight of three of the bombers flew over Beijing, military experts saw it doesn’t have bomb-bay doors. Instead, it has what appears to be new heavyweight attachment points in a recess along the centre-line of its fuselage.

Also noted was its modified, extended nose-cone and an air-to-air refuelling nozzle.

Assuming that the system can be made to work reliably, and this would include a multitude of sensors and cuing systems, it would be a formidable areal denial system.

It's Official, The PRC Will Be Operating a Carrier

This has probably been the worst kept secret in Asia, but the head of the Chinese General Staff has admitted that they are refitting the former Soviet carrier Varyag as an operational aircraft carrier:

The head of China's General Staff of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has confirmed that China's first aircraft carrier is under construction.

Gen Chen Bingde refused to say when the carrier - a remodelled Soviet-era vessel, the Varyag - would be ready.

I don't think that this ship will have any real military significance, but neither did the USS Langley.

This is not the development of a significant military capability, but rather like the Langley, it represents the ability to develop procedures and doctrine for later, and one would assume more capable, ships.

A Cool Idea That Isn't Going Anywhere

Saab is once again is considering marinizing the Gripen fighter for carrier use.

Technically, the airframe is already well suited to carrier use, but who is going to buy it?

The only countries that operate, or will operate, carriers with arrester gear are the US, France, China, Russia, Brazil, and India.

That's a small market, since only Brazil and India won't buy their own aircraft, and that is a very small production:

Based on the in-development Gripen E, the model would be capable of operating from aircraft carriers configured either for short-take-off but arrested recovery (STOBAR) or catapult-assisted take-off but with arrested recovery (CATOBAR) operations.

"We have a fully certified design that has been signed off by Saab management for the maritime version of Gripen," says Tony Ogilvy, head of marketing for the Gripen M. "It's in our portfolio, but it is only a design. We have not taken it to the next critical step, which will require a customer."

Ogilvy's background is carrier aviation. During a three-decade career in the UK Royal Navy he flew Blackburn Buccaneers for 12 years and British Aerospace Sea Harriers for six, including from several of the service's carriers. He contends that Saab's model-based systems engineering approach offers a "very high level of fidelity" that should, if a Gripen M customer is obtained, result in a concept demonstrator that works well first time.

………

Given that Sweden has no plans for aircraft carriers, the two potential markets for the Gripen M are Brazil and India.

The Brazilian air force has ordered 28 single-seat Gripen Es and eight two-seat F-model examples, being developed with Embraer. Its new fighters will be delivered between 2019 and 2024, including eight single-seaters and seven twin-seaters built in Brazil.

The nation's navy is also interested in replacing its retired aircraft carrier, the Sao Paolo, although this requirement has yet to be fully defined. Should Brazil's plans for such a new vessel gain traction, it could provide an opportunity for the Gripen M.

In India, Saab, Boeing and Dassault have responded to a request for information for 57 carrier-based fighters. India has one STOBAR-configured ship, equipped with RAC MiG-29Ks, and has plans for an additional example. Longer term, it has plans for a more potent CATOBAR carrier, potentially using General Atomics' electromagnetic aircraft launch system, as opposed to conventional steam catapults.

There is a whole flock of ducks that need get in a row before Saab can even think about putting in a serious bid.

Not gonna happen.

Cool idea though.

China Expected to Field First Carrier in 2011

Click for full size

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The Varyag is out of dry dock

It looks like the Chinese will be launching their first carrier this year.

It's made from the hull (no equipment or propulsion when bought as scrap) of the old unfinished Soviet STOBAR aircraft carrier Varyag, and while I doubt that it will ever serve in anything remotely resembling a combat capability, neither did the USS Langley, though it did see service as a seaplane tender.

What is important here is that it means that China will be developing equipment, doctrine, and training for a carrier borne air wing.

Like This is a Surprise

Well, defence ministry spokesman Huang Xueping has announced that China is considering building an aircraft carrier.

This is really no surprise. There have been indications that China was considering building a carrier for some time, as I have noted.

It will be news when China actually starts formally drawing up requirements, and again when it starts cutting metal or negotiating a purchase, but this is no surprise.

Linkage

China's Second Aircraft Carrier under construction  (China Defense Blog) Domestically manufactured, and it might have a catapult.
India Hits 'Milestone' with Launch of Own Aircraft Carrier (Defense News) 
J-2X Hot-Fire-Tests First Additive-Manufactured Part (Aviation Week) 3-D printing of high temperature, high strength components.  This is a big deal.
Caseless and case telescoped ammunition as a part of the Lightweight Small Arms Technologies (LSAT)

LSAT supporting materials:

You can see the 26 page PowerPoint for the program here, and a 2 page brochure here.

Linkage (In celebration of the end of the mid-terms)

• Barack Obama’s Great Tower of Nothing: Gentrification on a Presidential Level (Counterpunch) How Obama's quest for legacy, and his Presidential center, will demolish some of Frederick Law Olmsted's greatest work.
• I spent the day in an Amazon “fulfilment centre”, and it was worse than I ever imagined (New Statesman)  And this was a press junket, aka "Petting Zoo" tour.
• Russia’s Biggest Problem Will Soon Be Ours (Rolling Stone) I profoundly disagree with Taibbi here:  Population decline can make things better for people in the US, it just makes our informal empire less tenable.
• We're Not Gluten Intolerant, We're Glyphosate Intolerant (Return to Now) It turns out that reactions to Glyophosphate (Roundup^®) are almost identical to gluten issues, and farmers drench their fields with the stuff a week before harvest so that they can harvest all at once.
• China’s Second Aircraft Carrier Sails Closer to Joining the Fleet (War Is Boring) China's first indigenous carrier starts sea trials, still STOBAR, but at 55,000 tons it's about 20% larger than the Liaoning.
• SkyKnit: How an AI Took Over an Adult Knitting Community (The Atlantic) Skyknit ……… heh.  This pun must be shared.
• Racial slur spelled out at high school halftime (Atlanta Journal—Constitution) The team's mascot is the "Broncos".  They spelled out the word with the middle 4 letters.  Welcome to Trump world.

Some appropriate music for the end of the campaign season:

China Looking to Operating a Carrier?

If the rumor of China negotiating the purchase of Su-33 fighters of the type used on the Russian STOBAR carrier are true, it would appear to be the case.

Russians Look at Anglo-French CFV Purchase

It should come as no surprise that the current Russian STOBAR carrier has not proved itself to be a world beater.

Even so, reports that the Russian Navy is in discussions with Thales about purchasing the Anglo-French CVF aircraft carrier is a bit of a surprise:

The idea being floated is that all indications are Russia would like to build 6 aircraft carriers similar to the 60-70 thousand ton CVF design being developed for the British and French Navies. Ilya Kramnik's idea is to build the lead ship in France with foreign assistance, including some experience for Russian shipbuilders, then do follow on serial construction of the rest of the class in Russia.

There are a number of thorny issues that make this difficult, among them the likelihood that any US technology on the ships would not be cleared for export.

I think that its more likely that, if there were a joint venture with other countries, it would be Russia-China, and certainly the new shipyard planned at Cahngxing, will be used for the construction and service of larger ships, and the model of the facility, shows an aircraft carrier in a drydock.

Chinese Carrier Ambitions

Last week, I noted that the Chinese showed a carrier in drydock in a mockup of a new port facility, and this week, we have a senior official in the Chinese Defense Ministry, Major General Quan Lihua, suggesting that China is looking at acquiring a carrier, though not to, "use it to pursue global deployment or global reach."

Yeah, right.

Chinese Move Aircraft Carrier, Possibly for Refit

The partially completed Soviet aircraft carrier Varyag was sold by the Ukraine to China a few years back, and it was thought that it would be converted to a casino.

Well Galrahn came across photos of the ship being moved across the Dalian shipyard in what appears to be a prelude toward bringing the hull up to operational standards.

My guess is that it will never see operational service, but that it will be used for training and development of an indigenous carrier capability.

Not Good

The amphibious assault ship (LHD) Bonhomme Richard is still burning in San Diego harbor.

Navy officials said Monday that the fire ravaging the amphibious assault ship Bonhomme Richard for a second day has reached temperatures as high as 1,000 degrees, and it is still burning in various portions of the ship.

Smoke and fumes from the ship at San Diego Naval Base continued to pollute the skyline and air throughout San Diego. In an email Monday evening, a Naval Surface Forces spokeswoman said crews have made “significant progress” in the effort to save the ship.

Rear Adm. Philip Sobeck, the commander of Expeditionary Strike Group 3, said Monday that the fire is in the superstructure of the ship and its upper decks and that the ship’s forward mast has collapsed.

“There’s obviously burn damage all the way through the skin of the ship, and we are assessing that as we kind of go through each compartment,” he said. “Right now the priority is to get the fire out so that we can take a complete assessment.”

Basically a Helicopter Carrier

It should be noted that the Bonhomme Richard was at the end of a refit to allow it to accommodate the Marine Corps STOVL F-35B, and as a result, this capability will be missing from the the fleet for the foreseeable future:

The amphibious assault ship Bonhomme Richard, which burned through the night while in port in San Diego, was at the tail end of two years of upgrades supporting the integration of the F-35B, according to Navy documents.

That means the Navy will now have fewer options to deploy the next-generation fighter in the Pacific.

The Navy awarded the $219 million modernization contract to General Dynamics, National Steel and Shipbuilding Co. in 2018, which had options for up to $250 million. Bonhomme Richard is one of four large-deck amphibs to have received the upgrades. The Boxer was announced earlier this year as the fifth big-deck to get the upgrades.

Experts said the loss of Bonhomme Richard, whether a total loss or just lost for extensive repairs, deals a significant blow to the Navy’s plans to have F-35Bs continually deployed in the Pacific. And with Monday’s announcement that the United States had formally rejected China’s claims about the South China Sea, any accompanying boost in naval presence could be slowed by the fire.

This is such a 2020 thing to have happened.

Linkage

• Reality Check :: Facebook, Inc. (PlainSite) Evidence that not only is Facebook unethical toward its users, it's selling false data to its customers (advertisers).
• Clinton not ruling out running in 2020: report (The Hill) Please, just make it stop.
• Tribalism Isn’t Our Democracy’s Problem. The GOP Is. (NY Mag) Tru dat.
• Facebook just hired a handful of its toughest privacy critics (Ars Technica) If you can't address the criticism, buy the critics.
• China releases footage of ‘Guam killer’ DF-26 ballistic missile in ‘clear message to the US’ (South China Morning Post) I've generally heard it called a, "Carrier Killer," with a maneuverable reentry vehicle that can hit moving targets.
• OxyContin Maker Explored Expansion Into “Attractive”… (ProPublica) Purdue Pharma needs to be dismantled, and the Sackler Family needs to be have every penny of theirs seized.

I want to see someone selling beer in a Klein Bottle:

More Evidence of Chinese Carrier Aspirations

We have reports that the China are in negotiations to buy Su-33 carrier based fighters.

I think that we will see moderately sized (about 50,000 ton) carriers joining the Chinese fleet in the next decade, but the real indicator of their naval aspirations will be their submarine and amphibious warefare ship fleets.

The carriers are primarily a national pride undertaking, not a military endeavor.

Petraeus Is Eddie Haskell

For those of you who are not American, or are too young to remember him, Eddie Haskell is a character from an almost year old comedy, "Leave it to Beaver^*". He was the friend of the title character's older brother, and a repulsive troublemaker who never failed to suck up to the adults when they were around^†.

Well, it appears that Admiral William Fallon, chief of the Central Command (CENTCOM), and the good general's boss feels much the same way about Petraeus as the audience was supposed to about Eddie Haskell. It has been reported that the admiral told the general that he thought he was:

"an ass-kissing little chickens*it" and added, "I hate people like that", the sources say. That remark reportedly came after Petraeus began the meeting by making remarks that Fallon interpreted as trying to ingratiate himself with a superior.

Of note, Fallon appears to be a stand up guy, who is doing major pushback against the politicization of the military, and he has been steadfast, in opposing an attack on Iran.

Fallon acquired a reputation for a willingness to stand up to powerful figures during his tenure as commander in chief of the Pacific Command from February 2005 to March 2007. He pushed hard for a conciliatory line toward and China, which put him in conflict with senior military and civilian officials with a vested interest in pointing to China as a future rival and threat.

He demonstrated his independence from the White House when he refused in February to go along with a proposal to send a third naval carrier task force to the Persian Gulf, as reported by IPS in May. Fallon questioned the military necessity for the move, which would have signaled to Iran a readiness to go to war. Fallon also privately vowed that there would be no war against Iran on his watch, implying that he would quit rather than accept such a policy.

It should also be noted that the General's duties in Iraq had been securing arms Saddam's military, the ones that are used against us, and training the Iraqi police force, the one that is a Shia militia actively engaging in ethnic cleansing.

Let us pray that there are more Fallons than Petraeus in the Pentagon.

Sorry if this is old news, but Rosh Hashana has gotten me a bit behind.

^*This show had what had to be the most unintentionally sexual line on TV of the day, at least until Batman's gay innuendo, "Gee Ward, weren't you a bit hard on the Beaver last night?”

^†It should be noted that the actor who played him, went on to become a police officer, and was shot in the line of duty, forcing his retirement from the force, so he was nothing like Eddie.

Capitalism, You Gotta Love It

As a result of sanctions against Russia that prohibit overflights from Russian airlines, US, Canadian, and many European airlines are prohibited from overflying Russia, with the inevitable result that other airlines, particularly from China and India, are eating US carrier's lunch on long haul flights to Asia and the Middle East.

In response, US airlines are looking for legislation or regulation to ban airlines that do not have these restrictions from flying to the United States.

Seriously, where are the airlines sense of patriotism? 

They're just looking for another bailout, and they will probably misuse this one just as much as they did the Covid bailout.

So, We Have a New Fighter

Generic NGAD Rendering Donald Trump has announced that Boeing has won the Next Generation Air Defense (NGAD) fighter contract

The F-47, as it will be designated, is a new heavy fighter to replace the F-22 and (at least some) F-35s.

As near as I can tell from publicly available data, it will have a MTOW in the 40 ton range, similar to that of the F-22.

I would expect the range to be better, because of propulsion and material improvements, though the F-15, which does not have to carry a significant amount of fuel for cooling, might still out range it.

Obviously the stealth features should require less maintenance, and much like its F-22 and F-35 predecessors, it will carry all munitions internally, limiting flexibility.

Personally, I'm of the opinion that the effectiveness of stealth will decrease in future years, given that the underlying physics is publicly available, having been initially published in a Soviet academic journal, and advances in processing power and radar systems should increasingly be able to extend detection ranges.

Also, I am very dubious of Boeing being able to execute on time or on budget, since the company is still a clusterf%$#:

Boeing won a contract March 21 to develop a next-generation combat aircraft for the U.S. Air Force that will spearhead future air wars and throw a lifeline to the company’s struggling military aviation business.

The White House announcement came after a tumultuous competition between Boeing and Lockheed Martin for the prized rights to build the aircraft that is meant to anchor the Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) family of systems.

“It will be known as the F-47, the generals picked a title,” President Donald Trump said. “It’s something the likes that no one has seen before.”

Yeah, sure.  The "Generals picked," the title, which corresponds to Trump being President 47.

Following years of losses and missteps by Boeing Defense, this contract was a, "MUst win," for them, and one has to wonder if much of the reason for this choice is for industrial base preservation as anything else.

………

The Air Force wants a new aircraft with the range, speed and stealth to operate effectively over the vast Indo-Pacific region and against some of China’s most advanced weapons systems, including current and future stealth fighters and surface-to-air missile systems. The requirements dictate an aircraft with performance that defies familiar categories for combat aircraft, such as a fighter or bomber. But Boeing’s future aircraft is expected to feature supersonic speed and perhaps a lack of vertical control surfaces, along with a large structure to carry all fuel, sensors and weapons internally.

The cost-plus contract award for NGAD also offers a reprieve for a defense and space business within Boeing that has reported over $18 billion in reach-forward losses on fixed-price military and NASA programs since 2014, including $5 billion in new charges from 2024 alone. Despite the losses, Boeing invested heavily to win the NGAD contract, including starting construction nearly two years ago on a new factory in St. Louis to produce the aircraft.

This appears to be, unlike the F-35, a single service program, as all the current renderings show a tailless design, which mitigates against carrier versions or STOVL versions.

They are promising that it will be cheaper than the F-22, but I sincerely doubt this. 

Other sources have stated that they expect the aircraft to first take to the air some time in 2028, of which I am dubious.  In any case, I would expect service entry to follow any first flight by around a decade.

Well, They Would Say That, Wouldn't They?*

Boeing is suggesting that the US Navy would be better served by evolving the existing F/A-18 rather than spending two decades to develop another hyper-expensive stealth fighter. (paid subscription required)

Boeing is making a statement in own interest. It sells the F-18.

Boeing also happens to be right in this case: Development programs that are egregiously expensive and span decades do not produce weapons that work properly.

Either they perform poorly, or they are too expensive to deploy in the numbers in which they would be needed:

Boeing has cautioned the U.S. Navy against getting locked into another 20-year aircraft development program as it reaches for the F/A-XX, the service’s next carrier warplane.


The company says continuing to evolve the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet through Block 3 beginning in fiscal 2019 and a potential Block 4 follow-on modernization program as a complement to the Lockheed Martin F-35C Lightning II is the most prudent path forward to satisfy an immediate need for greater numbers of strike fighters with advanced capabilities.


Boeing says low-radar-cross-section airframes are useful for the first day of war and flying into denied areas guarded by X-band radars. But the integrated air defense radars of potential adversaries such as Russia and China have moved into different bands of the electromagnetic spectrum, such as C-band and S-band. Buying into a next-generation stealth aircraft development program under F/A-XX might not be the best answer to meet current and future threats, Boeing believes.


………


“For the Navy, and I think for a lot of countries, don’t lock yourself into a 20-year development cycle and a platform you’re stuck with for X amount of years,” says Larry Burt, a former naval aviator and now Boeing’s director of global sales and marketing for global strike programs. “Don’t make a big revolutionary step. Keep evolving what you’ve got. You could keep evolving the mission systems, sensors and capability of the Super Hornet and maybe eventually put a new wrapper on it.”

With the 2^nd most protracted and dysfunctional weapons development program in the world (India's is worse), they are right.

US defense procurement is a racket, with the contractors spreading sub-contractors to the districts of powerful Congressmen, and providing lucrative sinecures to the generals involved in their retirement.

^*Yes, this is a reference to Mandy Rice-Davies.