Monthly Jobs Report Today ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

See az Trend in NFP>


Unemployment Rate (U-3)Job growth was 142,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate fell by .1% to 4.2%.

You need around a 125,000 - 150,000 increase in the non-farm payroll to keep place with natural growth of the labor market, so this is at best flat.

Employers added 142,000 jobs in August, continuing a labor market cooling trend that has stoked fears that interest rates have been high for too long.

The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2 percent.

The August jobs report released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics was among the most closely watched snapshots of the labor market since the coronavirus pandemic. The jobs gains were weaker than forecasters’ predictions of 161,000 jobs, but improved on July’s weak showing of 114,000. Still, downward revisions from the two previous months suggest that the labor market is cooling faster than the initial data may indicate.

Analysts were watching to see if the unemployment rate spike in July was a mere data quirk or indicative of a broader slowdown in the labor market. Data from August hints that July’s weaknesses were mostly a one-off, as temporary layoffs declined by 190,000, offsetting an increase in the prior month. Federal Reserve officials will be using the data to steer interest rate cuts later this month. And the presidential candidates will be looking to the report to make their case for who is better for the economy.

Wage growth was good, 3.8% year over year, which beats inflation, which is good, but the NFP numbers in June and July were revised down by 86,000.

My prediction stands, the Fed will lower rates by 25 basis points (¼%) at their next meeting.

I think that we are already in a downturn, and that the numbers will be getting worse.