15 September 2022

It's Thursday, So

We have another initial unemployment claims report, and fell from 218,000 to 213,000, with the 4 week moving average falling by 8,000, though continuing claims increased slightly.

In related news, retail sales rose 0.3% in August.

I think that it is almost certain that the Federal Reserve is going to raise rates, the only question is whether or not it does so by ¾% or by a full 1%:

U.S. applications for unemployment benefits declined for the fifth consecutive week as employers held on to their workers in a persistently tight labor market.

Initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, fell to a seasonally adjusted 213,000 last week from a revised 218,000 the previous week, the Labor Department said Thursday. Claims have declined since August after rising earlier in the summer.

The four-week moving average, which smooths out weekly volatility, fell by 8,000 to 224,000. Weekly initial claims averaged about 214,000 from the beginning of the year to early September, about the same level as the 2019 weekly average of around 218,000.

Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people who have been unemployed and have received benefits for more than one week, increased slightly to 1.4 million in the week ended Sept. 3 from the previous week. Continuing claims are reported with a one-week lag.

The Federal Reserve is going to go postal at their next meeting.  Not good.


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