Thursday Jobless Report Out

Initial unemployment claims fell to 198,000, which, once again, is a good number, even by the standards of the before times.

I still think that the seasonal adjustments are probably adding some inaccuracies to our current employment situation, but these numbers are positive by any measure.

The effects of Omicron, which is going through the US like sh%$ through a goose, is still not clear.

U.S. employers added a record number of jobs in 2021, as a gauge of layoffs fell to a half-century low and available positions surged on strong demand for labor during the economy’s recovery from pandemic-related shutdowns.

But the pace of labor market gains could slow early next year due to the uncertainty posed by the Omicron variant of Covid-19 pandemic, especially in restaurants, hotels and other venues where people gather.

Applications for unemployment benefits, a proxy for layoffs, have trended near five-decade lows in recent weeks. Jobless claims for the week ended Dec. 25 fell from the prior week to a seasonally adjusted 198,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. Last week’s four-week moving average, which smooths out volatility, fell to the lowest level since October 1969.

………

Jobless claims will be closely watched in the coming weeks for any signs that the Omicron variant is causing employers to lay off workers. Claims data, which are reported weekly, are often an early signal that hiring, and the broader economy, is shifting.

………

Oxford Economics expects employers to add 5 million payroll jobs in 2022, equal to an average of more than 400,000 a month. That would be a modest slowdown from this year, when U.S. employers added an average of 555,000 a month, or 6.1 million jobs through the first 11 months of 2021, according to the Labor Department. This year’s job increase is already the largest on record back to 1940.

I do wonder when the statistics will be adjusted to meat the new normal.

I also wonder what the hell the new normal actually is.