Better to be Lucky than Good

Harry Reid (D-NV) is polling almost as badly as Blanche Lincoln, but it appears that hi might win because a Tea-Bagger candidate will split the anti-Harry vote:

The race is expected to include at least one Tea Party candidate, Las Vegas business leader Scott Ashjian. And there's evidence in the Mason-Dixon poll that Reid would benefit, should Ashjian become a serious third candidate in the race (which is a big if). The pollster pitted Reid against a nameless Republican and a nameless Tea Party candidate in a hypothetical matchup. Asked how they'd vote, Nevadans gave Reid a slight edge in three-way race. Reid got 36% of the vote, the GOP candidate 32% and the Tea Party candidate 18%.

I figure that Reid will pick up a few percent on the way to November, and that the Tea-Bagger will fall in the polls, so it gets interesting.