05 March 2009

Remember What I Said About the Marine Insurance Act of 1746?

If not, see here, but once again, we are seeing the effects of ignoring this 346 year old lesson, because investors have made bets on the failure of bonds that they do not hold through Credit Default Swaps (CDS), and in so doing, look likely to be driving otherwise solvent companies into bankruptcy:
Amusement-park operator Six Flags Inc. and automaker Ford Motor Co. may be pushed toward bankruptcy by bondholders trying to profit from credit-default swaps that protect against losses on their high-yield debt.

By employing a so-called negative-basis trade, investors could buy Six Flags bonds at 20.5 cents on the dollar and credit- default swaps at 71 cents. If the New York-based chain defaults, the creditors would receive the face value of the debt, minus costs. In a Feb. 27 note, Citigroup Inc.’s high-yield strategists put that profit at 6 percentage points, or $600,000 on a $10 million purchase.

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It was recognized centuries ago that you should not be allowed to use insurance to do this, because it leads to fraud and panics, but the free market mousketeers decided that that was old thinking, and that they had no need for no stinking insurance regulations.

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