Economics Update

Well, retail sales increased by 1% last month, about twice as much as expected. When gas if figured out, it drops to 0.8%, and then there is the question of how much food contributed.

Additionally, we have businesses expanding their inventories, though one has to wonder if this because they are hedging against inflation, or if they are expecting an uptick in business?

I tend to go with a bearish, and it appears that the outgoing head of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) thinks so too.

He sees the economy slipping into recession, and possibly stagflation.

Certainly, inflation concerns are rising world wide, with the South African central bank raising rates, ½% to 12%. (Ouch)

Employment is not looking good either, with initial jobless claims rising to 384,000 last week, though one always the caveat that week to week changes can just be noise, as opposed to signal.

Then again, with mortgage rates rising, they are now at an 8 month high, I don't see construction leading any recovery.

In energy, we had oil down as the dollar strengthened, though retail gasoline hit a new high...again.