25 September 2007

Maryland Politics: Slots

Ever since before Paris Glendenning left office, Maryland has been in a situation where the state has a structural deficit. Basically, Glendenning beat Ellen Saurbreey in a VERY close race in 1994, and proceeded to implement her cockamamie tax proposals at the height of the dotcom boom in order to score political points, and in so doing left the state with a structural deficit.

The governor following Glendening, Bob "Bad Hair" Ehrlich (R-Cluelessville) who had defeated Glendenning's Lt. Governor, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (Possibly the worst candidate in the history of...well...history, and definitely in the history of the Kennedys).

He was a big fan of slots, and it was the central plank of his campaign, as a way to close the deficit, which ignores the mathematical reality of the situation. He also was completely clueless, not having even the remotest plan about how to implement slots, so his first proposal when he was governor was so bad that the racetracks (horse, not NASCAR) who were the primary beneficiaries of his plan were aghast.

So, it went back and forth, between the House Speaker Mike Busch generally being opposed to slots, and Senate Leader Mike Miller generally supporting them.

Both houses passed slots bills in 2005, but they were very different. The Senate provided for gambling at the racetracks, and the house bill had (largely) state owned machines at state owned sites along I-95 towards Delaware (where there are slots) and in Western Maryland towards West Virginia (where there are also slots), the theory being to catch Maryland residents before they spend that money out of state.

Disclosure: I am opposed to slots, not because I oppose gambling, but because I think that an over reliance on "sin" revenue casts taxes as something for bad people to pay, as opposed to dues that everyone pays to be a member of society.

Well, now that Martin O'Malley is governor, both the legislature and the executive are willing to face reality, and as such there are going to be some revenue increases, both taxes and slots.

Truth be told, slots are going to be a pretty small part of the picture revenue wise, but Mike Miller is retiring, and feels the need to get slots implemented as part of his "legacy".

O'Malley has been in negotiation with the legislature, and his plan includes income tax increases at the higher brackets, increases in the sales taxes, and an increase in the gas tax to take into account Ehrlich's raiding of the transportation budget.

The funny thing is that his slots plan is largely identical to the house plan of 2005.

Logistically, it makes sense, put the slots on the way to where people are going, and let the state own them so as to get the most revenue (though there is about $100 million to subsidize horse racing annually* and $6 million a year would go to help problem gamblers).

It also ends up placing the slots in largely rural and largely Republican areas. (heh)

The question now is whether O'Malley will submit this on its own, which would get a lot of Republican votes, or as part of a whole revenue package, which forces the Republicans to choose between slots (which they like, since people are already doing it out of state anyway) and the tax increases (which is all they have left to campaign on).

My money is on it coming out together, to shiv the 'Phants, though the charitable explanation is that it will be harder to get this through the house, so you go with something that they have already passed.

Amazingly enough there are not yet any allegations of graft, which in Maryland is no small thing.

*I know, kind of silly to prop up a dying business, but horse racing in Maryland has a bizarre attachment to some folks, as leg two of the Triple Crown is at Pimlico, and all.
Short for Elephants...Republicans that is.

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